Forecast discussion: Boston received another good rainfall early Tuesday morning, as a low pressure system now over Quebec, Canada brought a cold front through Boston. Logan Airport reported almost three-quarters of an inch from this system. Now, we will be seeing partial clearing, as a high pressure ridge begins to move into New England.
By tomorrow, the pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming high pressure ridging will create a northwest breeze. But, we will see mostly sunny skies, so good weather is expected for any outdoor plans. The high will continue to influence our weather into Thursday afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will only reach the lower 50’s.
As we approach the weekend, I am getting two different scenarios from the computer models. At this moment, a cold front will be passing through the region on Friday morning, giving us the chance for some scattered showers. Despite the front stalling, the shower activity will cut off by the evening commute. By Friday night, a second low will form off of eastern Texas. It will pick up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and feed it along a frontal boundary. The boundary will pass through the area by Sunday night. We would then see heavy rainfall Monday and Tuesday, as a high pressure system stalls the movement of the boundary.
At this time, the European models keep the weekend a little drier, and the boundary is still to our west come Monday. So, my overall confidence in the forecast after Sunday afternoon is low at this time.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Skies will slowly become partly cloudy with a low of 42.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a high of 53. Winds will come from the northwest at 14-17 mph.
Fenway Park Forecast (4:05 p.m. vs. Texas): Mostly sunny and windy, 51.
Wednesday night: Clear skies and cooler with a low of 36. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 4-7 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with increasing winds in the afternoon and a high of 60.
Thursday night: Increasing clouds through the overnight and windy with a low of 45.
Friday: Overcast with possible showers arriving by 8 a.m. Showers will end by 4 p.m. We will see a high of 61.
Friday night: Overcast with showers re-developing after midnight and a low of 44.
Saturday: Scattered showers ending by 4 p.m. We will see partly cloudy skies by midnight. Highs 58-61, lows 40-43.
Sunday: Mostly sunny until the late morning, with overcast skies by the afternoon. Showers will develop by 7 p.m. Highs 60-63, lows 46-49.
Monday: Moderate to heavy rain in the early morning, with isolated showers and drizzle by the afternoon. Showers return by the evening. Highs 62-65, lows 47-50.
Tuesday: Moderate to heavy rain, especially during the evening. Highs 55-58, lows 43-46.