Area weather forecasters continue to struggle with this weekends storm forecast. Everyone is talking about how they have downgraded the storm and thus reduced the expected snow accumulations. Computer guidance now suggests the storm track will be farther south, the storm will be weaker and the surface low and upper level energy will not link up to create a monster nor’easter. A storm will develop along the mid-Atlantic coast today and spin up toward the waters south of New England taking up a position southeast of Nantucket Island by Sunday morning. Precipitation is still expected to overspread the local area this afternoon, with snow inland and a rain snow mix near the coastline as we will be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. This scenario continues overnight, although slightly colder air will begin to collapse into the area, changing most of the precipitation to all snow Sunday morning.
As the surface low pulls away the upper level low follows during Sunday. This will energize the atmosphere to produce another bout of precipitation, however with slightly cooler air now in place everyone in the local area should see accumulating snow through the day. And, the precipitation is now not expected to shut off until Sunday night as the upper level low slowly moves through.
Having said that it still remains a tricky forecast. There is margin for error and the forecast can change as we move through today and into tonight. A couple of other items to remember. Since the storm is now farther offshore and weaker the concern for minor coastal flooding, gusty winds and power outages have diminished, although still not completely ruled out.
How much snow do we expect in the area? Lets break it down into two parts. First, for tonight it should stay mostly wet along the coast with perhaps a slushy inch and an inch or three possible inland. Part two is Sunday when the upper level low will be responsible for more snow and we could see an additional 1 to 3 inches on the coast to 3 or 4 inches inland. Overall through Sunday night 2 to 4 inches on the coast upwards to 4 to 7 inches inland, west of Route 95. Keep in mind the higher totals are reserved for areas along the Route 495 belt and hilly terrain of Middlesex County. These totals can change as more information is obtained throughout the day.
Please do check local weather and news outlets or our Twitter feed for updates on this evolving weather event. https://twitter.com/NorthShore_Wx
Short Term Forecast:
Today: Cloudy, a few flurries possible with light snow developing this afternoon. Rain mixes in along the coast. High temperatures 35 to 39 degrees. Light southeast winds.
Tonight: Snow far inland to a mix on the coast, which may change to all rain at times on the immediate coast and along Cape Ann. Lows near freezing inland to the mid 30s on the coast. Winds east 10 to 20 mph near the coast, diminishing to around 10 mph inland.
Sunday: Precipitation tapers off in the morning, with snow redeveloping for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain steady from 30 to 34 degrees. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday night: Snow tapers to flurries and ends by midnight. Lows 28 to 32.
Monday: Partly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cool. Highs 36 to 40.