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Boston weather: Spring will leave for a few days

The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on March 23, 2014. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures dropping are expected.
The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on March 23, 2014. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures dropping are expected.

Forecast discussion: Boston began to see some increasing clouds around noon, as a cold front was passing through Southern New England. This front helped to produce some scattered showers during the early afternoon. But, westerly winds did help to push warmer air from the south into the region. By the time we were in the mid-afternoon, Logan Airport was reporting a high of 57 degrees for the day. However, it will begin to look and feel like mid-February once again over the next several days.

High temperature forecast for March 23, 2014

The warmer air we received will be gone by Sunday afternoon. A second cold front, more of an Arctic front, will be swinging through the region. It will bring down colder air from Canada, and our temperatures will begin to tumble by the early afternoon. Overnight lows for Sunday night will plummet into the middle teens. Despite the sunshine for Monday, our high temperatures may not make it to 30 degrees. Quiet weather is expected for Monday night, but then we may have to prepare for an old fashioned Nor’Easter by Tuesday night.

The computer models have all been in agreement over the last few days. A low pressure system will begin to develop on the eastern side of the Atlantic, between Georgia and Florida. The low will rapidly develop as it moves towards New England Tuesday evening. We will begin to see some snow showers from some upper level dynamics near the storm. The biggest question to answer is where does the low actually track and how strong the low will be when it gets here. So far, the computer models keep moving the low closer to New England. This means we will see stronger winds entering Tuesday night, and it appears the Cape and Islands will see the heaviest snowfall. Also, there is the chance of Cape Cod seeing some coastal erosion from strong waves and wind. There is the slight chance that Boston will see up to 6 inches of snow before the storm moves away Wednesday night. Again, this is all speculation, as the actual wave energy that will create this system has not even made it to the west coast.

We will see milder air arrive by the end of the week, as a high pressure system helps shift our winds to the southwest. A low pressure system will slowly try to move into New England on Friday, as it will be blocked by the high. The high’s influence breaks down by Friday afternoon, as we will see some showers by the evening. This frontal boundary will be moving quite slowly, so there is a decent chance of seeing some heavy rainfall next Saturday. Temperatures will return to spring like conditions, with highs reaching the lower to middle 50’s.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 31.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 40. Temperatures will begin to fall after 2 p.m. Winds will come from the northwest at 14-17 mph.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy and cold with a low of 15. Winds will come from the northwest at 10-13 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny but quite cold with the high only reaching 26.
Monday night: Clear skies with a low of 18.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds through the morning with light snow starting by about 4 p.m. We will see a high of 36.
Tuesday night: Light to moderate snow with increasing winds and a low of 24.

Extended Forecast:
Wednesday: Cloudy and windy with light to moderate snow. Snow ends by 7 p.m. Highs 35-38, lows 21-24.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 39-42, lows 30-33.
Friday: Increasing clouds by the late morning, with showers arriving by 7 p.m. Highs 52-55, lows 41-44.
Saturday: Overcast with light to moderate rain. Highs 53-56, lows 40-43.

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