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Boston weather: Snow to rain to snow for Thursday

The high temperatures for Southern New England on February 13, 2014.
The high temperatures for Southern New England on February 13, 2014.

Forecast discussion: The Southeast U.S. has had a rough going on Wednesday, as snow, ice, and sleet have pummeled Georgia, Alabama, and North and South Carolina. The low that has trek through the Southeast U.S. is weakening, as a new low forms off the coast of North Carolina. This low will bring us the winter storm I have been discussing for the last few days.

Snowfall forecast for February 13-14, 2014

As of now, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all areas west of Boston. The capital city, along with Bristol and Plymouth Counties, are currently under a Winter Weather Advisory. The warnings are in effect from 7 a.m. Thursday until 7 a.m. Friday. For any school cancellations or delays in the Boston area, click here.

This storm will look and feel like the previous storm in the beginning. Snowfall should begin between 6 and 9 a.m. Thursday morning. Everyone will begin as snow, and it could become heavy at times. There is a small chance of seeing 1-2 inch per hour snowfall during the commute. As warmer air off the ocean moves over the state, the precipitation will begin to change over to different types. The Cape and Islands will quickly change over to rain. Plymouth County will see mostly sleet before it changes over to rain by the late morning. By 1 p.m., everyone south and east of Boston will see a change to all rain. Also, as the afternoon progresses, winds will be increasing from the northeast. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible, so there may be scattered power outages. We will remain all rain until the late evening, as colder air returns over the eastern part of the state. The rain will change back to snow early Friday morning, before the start of the afternoon. Look at my slideshow photo for snowfall totals for eastern Massachusetts.

Once we get past Friday afternoon, a new low pressure system will form over the New York-Pennsylvania border early Saturday morning. The low will actually move south of Southern New England, but we will see a few snow showers, starting early Saturday morning, and ending by the middle of the afternoon. Snowfall amounts will be a coating to an inch.

As we head into earl next week, high pressure will give us a reprieve from any precipitation. However, it will be very cold, as temperatures drop into the single digits once again Sunday night. We will see sunshine on Monday, with increasing clouds through the afternoon. A weak cold front will pass through the region, seeing snow showers Monday night, but changing to rain by Tuesday morning. We will also see temperatures be slightly above normal, as the jet stream shows a more zonal, or west to east, flow. We will see a slight thaw, as possible precipitation Wednesday evening will remain showers and light rain.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with light snow falling by 6 a.m. We will see a low of 21.
Thursday: Light to moderate snow during the morning commute. Snow changes to sleet and then rain into Boston by mid-afternoon. We will see a high of 37 with winds increasing from the north at 22-27 mph with occasional gusts of 45-50 mph.
Thursday night: Windy with rain changing back to sleet and snow by 2 a.m. across the city. We will have a low of 31 with north-northwest winds of 25-30 mph with gusts of 50-55 mph.
Friday: Light snow and snow showers turn to light rain showers by 10 a.m. and all precipitation ends by noon. Partly sunny skies expected the rest of the day. We will see a high of 39 with winds decreasing through the afternoon.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible by 4 a.m. and a low of 25.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers ending by 3 p.m. We will see a high of 35.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 14.

Extended Forecast:
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-27, lows 8-11.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny with possible light snow before midnight. Highs 27-30, lows 21-24.
Tuesday: Light snow/rain possible in the morning, ending in the mid-afternoon. Highs 40-43, lows 26-29.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny through the early afternoon, but turning cloudy with possible showers by the evening. Highs 40-43, lows 33-36.

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