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Boston weather: Nice start, but showers by evening

The temperature forecast for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on June 3, 2014
The temperature forecast for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on June 3, 2014

Forecast discussion: A strong high pressure system off the coast of North Carolina brought bright sunshine and warm temperatures to Boston on Monday. With the help of some southeast winds, temperatures were above normal for this time of the year, and a little cooler along the coastline. We will see more warm weather on Tuesday, before a cold front leaves us with some showers for Wednesday.

The high will continue to influence our weather this evening, as well as keep moisture away from New England. So, the air will begin to feel a little more humid throughout the afternoon and early evening. But, the high pressure ridge will begin to break down, and a cold front will bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms by Tuesday night. The front will remain over the region on Wednesday, so we will see more isolated showers. By Wednesday night, a low pressure system coming from western Texas will bring more rain and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. This is because the low will come from the southwest and into the Mid-Atlantic region.

The low, along with the rest of the cold front, will finally move out to sea by early Friday morning. We will see the rest of any isolated showers come to an end at the same time. High pressure off the coast of Virginia will remain quasi-stationary, allowing us to have dry weather through the entire weekend. However, the big difference in the weather forecast for the weekend is the temperatures. Despite long range computer models predicting temperatures in the lower 80’s the National Weather Service is only forecasting temperatures in the middle 70’s. The NWS believes enough cool air aloft will help keep temperatures cooler.

However, the June sun is strong, and clear skies would bring temperatures into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. For now, I will cut it right down the middle, seeing temperatures reach the upper 70’s by Sunday. But, my overall confidence in the forecast is low. All the computer models do agree on the position of the high’s center and temperature forecast in higher parts of the atmosphere.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 60.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 79. We will have southeast winds at 11-15 mph.
Tuesday night: Showers by 10 p.m. with rain and isolated thunderstorms after midnight with a low of 58. Winds will come from the east-southeast at 4-7 mph.
Wednesday: Rain tapers to showers by mid-morning, becoming more isolated through the day. We will have a high of 68.
Wednesday night: Cloudy skies with isolated showers and thunderstorms with a low of 59. Patchy fog may develop after midnight.
Thursday: Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms with a high of 69.
Thursday night: Scattered showers with a low of 58.

Extended Forecast:
Friday: Showers end by about 3 a.m., with partly sunny skies by the late afternoon. Highs 69-72, lows 56-59.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-76, lows 56-59.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-79, lows 56-59.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny during the day, with cloudy skies and showers by the evening. Highs 74-77, lows 57-60.

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