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Boston weather: Mild with rain showers at first, then snow showers at night

The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 23, 2014. Isolated showers are expected by the early evening.
The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 23, 2014. Isolated showers are expected by the early evening.

Forecast discussion: Thanks to high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast, Boston was able to keep southwest winds along with above average temperatures on Saturday. However, if you have to drive this evening, please be careful. Earlier this morning, some towns and cities had their low temperatures go below freezing. This helped all the puddles on the streets and highways to become black ice. So, north and west of the capital city may see their temperatures go below freezing during the overnight hours.

High temperature forecast for February 23, 2014

We will see some sunshine on Sunday, but increasing clouds are expected, due to a weak cold front. This front will pass over the region during the evening, and shift our winds to the northwest by the evening. At first, we will see some isolated rain showers. As the front passes, we will see the front trigger some snow showers, as cooler air moves over the region. The precipitation will not last very long, as I am expecting all precipitation to end by the middle of Monday morning. I am looking at just a coating to an inch for Boston, although some snow bands may create up to 2 inches in some isolated areas.

Unlike the previous storm, we will not be seeing a thaw. In fact, we will see a similar version of the polar vortex return to the east coast. Unlike the previous one, temperatures will not be as cold. However, temperatures will be well below normal for this time of the year. The average temperature right now is about 42 degrees during the day, and 28 at night. We will only see temperatures in the lower teens during the overnight, with highs trying to make it to 30 degrees.
Also, I am watching the computer models very carefully for more snow on Wednesday. Right now, the computer models form a low off the North Carolina coastline, as well as a weaker secondary low over northern New York. The second low will help trigger some snow showers for us. However, it is still unclear if the low will stay close enough to the coast to help influence our weather. The American and European models take the low out to sea. Also, the models tend to forecast this way, as it is trying to take the climatology into effect for this time of the year.

High pressure ridging will build in from the west, giving us dry weather for Thursday and Friday. However, with the jet stream beginning to split, the early forecast for next Saturday calls for more light snow, as a weak low pressure system from the south helps brings moisture up into New England. At this time, my forecast for next Saturday remains low, as the computer models are all disagreeing on how to handle the forecast.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies until midnight, with partly cloudy skies into dawn. We will see a low of 34. Areas north and west of Boston may see black ice.
Sunday: Partly sunny by the afternoon, with isolated rain showers by 6 p.m. and a high of 49. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 7-10 mph.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with passing snow showers and a low of 29. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 7-10 mph before dawn.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with snow showers ending by mid-morning. Mostly sunny skies expected the rest of the day. It will be colder with a high of 33. Total snowfall amounts will be a coating to an inch. Isolated areas of 2 inches are possible in snow bands.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 19.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with a high of 30.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 20.

Extended Forecast:
Wednesday: Cloudy with light to moderate snow by the late morning, ending by the early evening. Highs 29-32, lows 11-14.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs 24-27, lows 12-15.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-30, lows 12-15.
Saturday: Cloudy with light to moderate snow starting by the late morning. Highs 28-31, lows 19-22.

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