Winter will certainly remain intact this week as we once again deal with a significant winter storm, followed by continued unseasonably cold and blustery conditions through the late week period. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Monday night and Tuesday time period.
The high pressure system that gave us a fair and cold St. Patrick’s Day will shift eastward during Monday. A very cold morning, by mid March standards, will greet you Monday morning and it stays quite chilly through the day. Although we have some morning sunshine the overall trend will be for increasing clouds. Expect high temperatures only around 35 degrees, some 10 degrees below the seasonal average. Winds will not be a factor in enhancing the chill as they run less than 10 mph.
A sprawling and complex winter storm system will move out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. A secondary coastal low will develop off the New Jersey coast and become the primary player in this event. This coastal low is due to track right over southeastern Massachusetts and be positioned just to the east of Boston by Tuesday evening. Plenty of cold air is in place so the onset of precipitation Monday night will be in the form of snow. The snow continues overnight into Tuesday morning when snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour could be falling. A mix with and or changeover to freezing rain and sleet is possible mid to late morning. Rain is possible for a period of time right along the immediate coastline. Inland, west of Route 95, the snow should hold on longer before any mixing takes place. Along and west of Route 495 and through the Merrimack Valley this storm may remain mostly snow. One thing is for certain and that is the Tuesday morning commute is going to be quite a challenge as treacherous driving conditions are likely.
The National Weather Service has indicated that snowfall of 4 to7 inches is possible throughout the metro Boston area, increasing to a foot or more along and west of Route 495. These totals may and probably will need to be tweaked during Monday but you get the idea there is the potential for a major snowfall, especially throughout the interior. As always, a slight change in the storm track will have significant consequences on the rain/snow line, sleet or freezing rain. Speaking of rain, areas south of Boston may changeover to a period of heavy rain during Tuesday. Precipitation should begin to wind down later Tuesday, with occasional snow possibly continuing into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures Monday night range from 26 inland to 31 on the coast. Highs Tuesday 32 to 35 inland, possibly near 40 on the shore. Lows Tuesday night 25 to 30. Winds throughout this event are not expected to be significant as in past storms, but gusts to 30 mph could occur along the coast.
For the remainder of the week we can expect a lot of clouds with snow showers possible at times Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. We will remain colder than normal, with highs generally 35 to 40 degrees Wednesday through Friday and the overnight lows 24 to 28, with the coast around 30 degrees.