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Boston weather, metro north and west: Sunshine, cold and breezy Monday

It is looking more likely that a coastal storm impacts the area Thursday with the potential for heavy snow inland and a wintry mix along the coast.
It is looking more likely that a coastal storm impacts the area Thursday with the potential for heavy snow inland and a wintry mix along the coast.

Last nights snowfall only measured a coating to 1 inch throughout the forecast area as those heavier snow bands never set up along the north shore coastline. I was hard pressed to find any totals over 1 inch, except in Groton where 1.5 inches was reported by the National Weather Service. A more significant snow event is probably going to impact the area by Thursday.

A bright sunny day, cold temperatures and a brisk breeze is on tap for Monday after last nights very light snow event. With high pressure once again setting up shop in the region we can look for lots of sunshine, continued below normal temperatures and moderate to light winds through Wednesday. It will be particularly cold tonight and Tuesday night as some interior locations will flirt with zero.

Over the next few days low pressure will ripple along the Gulf of Mexico Coast. This will bring precipitation across the southern tier of states where some areas will see ice and snow from this system. The low will emerge off the coast of South Carolina early Wednesday and then it is expected to set its sights on southern New England. By Thursday morning the low center is forecast to be near Virginia Beach as it continues to move northeastward.

There is high confidence that we are going to have impacts from this storm but the storm track remains in doubt. Current thinking is a track anywhere from across outer Cape Cod to just southeast of Nantucket Island. Although snow is expected to develop everywhere by Thursday morning the closer to the coast the storm tracks the more likely a change to rain will occur along the coast. A track further offshore probably holds the snow all the way to the coast, at least north of Boston. One other solution is a track hugging the coast which would push the rain snow line west of Route 128/95 and perhaps all the way to Route 495. Finally, there is a possibility, albeit slim, that slides the storm too far southeast of our area and gives us very light amounts of snow, if any at all.

With all this in mind and the storm still almost 3 days away the best idea at this time is snow inland, snow to a mix and then to rain on the coast. Whatever happens it all winds down as snow Thursday night and should be gone for Valentine’s Day.

Many more details will be forthcoming in Tuesday’s update and hopefully a much better idea on the track of this coastal storm.

72 Hour Outlook:

Monday and Monday night: Mostly sunny with some afternoon clouds. Generally clear skies overnight. High temperatures in the upper 20s to 30 degrees. Lows overnight in the single digits inland to around 10 along the coast, low teens in Boston. Brisk northwest winds today will diminish overnight.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: Mostly sunny with spotty clouds at times. Cold, highs in the mid 20s. Mainly clear at night and very cold once again. Lows near zero to 5 above interior, around 10 on the coast. Brisk northwest winds diminishing once again overnight.

Wednesday: Sunny to start, followed by increasing afternoon clouds. Highs in the upper 20s. Light winds.

Wednesday night: Becoming cloudy with a chance of snow after midnight. Not as cold. Lows in the low to mid 20s.

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