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Boston weather, metro north and west: A mild start to February

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The weekend is here and so is February. After another cold outbreak early this week we have slowly warmed the last couple of days and that trend continues through the weekend as it will feel un-February like through Sunday.

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High pressure has drifted offshore this morning. We are watching a low pressure system to our west that is going to track across the eastern Great Lakes and be positioned in northern Maine by Sunday morning. The system is moving far enough to our west and north that the precipitation associated with it will mainly impact western, central and northern New England today and tonight. Our chance for showers will come Sunday as the associated cold front swings through our area during the day. Ahead of the front milder air remains in place through the weekend before it begins to cool down Monday.

Low pressure over the Southeast US on Monday morning quickly moves off the coast south of New England and passes well to our south during the day. However, it may come close enough to bring a band of light snow across the south coast of New England and southeastern Massachusetts on Monday. Locally we could see a few passing flurries or snow showers in the immediate Boston area through midday. Cooler air overspreads the region through the day and stays in place. It will not be the arctic cold that we have seen time and again the last two months but still a slightly below normal chill will persist. This is important and will play a big part in the weather for mid week as a significant winter storm is likely to impact the area later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Low pressure emerges from the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and rapidly moves northeastward. The system is expected to redevelop off the New Jersey coast by Wednesday morning which helps to hold in the colder air and keeps this primarily a snow event inland. Coastal areas could see a wintry mix during Wednesday. Specific impacts are not yet certain but this could be a significant storm to one with only light to moderate impacts. More will be known by late this weekend with additional computer model runs.

Clearing skies, windy and colder weather returns for Thursday and Friday.

72 Hour Outlook:

Saturday: Some early breaks of sunshine, otherwise becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. Mild, high temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Light variable winds, turning south to southeast this afternoon.

Saturday night: Remaining mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower very late, especially across the interior. Lows in the mid 30s. Light south winds.

Sunday: Considerable cloudiness, chance of a passing shower. Mild, highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds turning west in the afternoon at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday night: Mostly to partly cloudy. Cooler, lows in the mid to upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday night: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy near the New Hampshire border, becoming mostly clear overnight. Chance of flurries or a few snow showers through midday in and around Boston. Colder, highs in the low to mid 30s with overnight lows in the low 20s. Some upper teens possible through the interior.

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