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Boston weather: January Thaw continues, showers by Tuesday

Monday's Northeast set up brings mild southwest winds and temperatures near 50 locally.
Monday's Northeast set up brings mild southwest winds and temperatures near 50 locally.

Metro Boston, north shore and metro west: January has seen its share of much colder than normal weather locally. The month began in the deep freeze as temperatures did not get above freezing through the first four days and we had three consecutive nightly lows of near zero, 2nd through 4th, with a total of 5 nights of low temperatures under 10 degrees. Eight of the eleven days have seen high temperatures below the monthly norm. Yet, we have climbed into the 50s two days so far which helped to offset the below normal temperatures through the first twelve days. As of today temperatures are running slightly over 5 degrees colder than normal for January.

Taking a look ahead for the upcoming week the main features will be milder than normal temperatures through the work week before it becomes colder next weekend. And, a couple of rounds of precipitation, notably on Tuesday and later Wednesday into Wednesday night. With the mild air in place most of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain with some snow through interior sections Wednesday night.

High pressure offshore has turned the winds back to the milder southwest direction. We are in for a pleasant mid January day on Monday with mild temperatures and plenty of sunshine. High clouds are on the increase later in the day and this signals the approach of our next weather maker.

A cold front will move through Tuesday with a chance of a weak wave of low pressure forming along the front. We may have only showers for a portion of the day and evening or with the wave development several hours of steadier rainfall would be more likely.

After a brief drying period late Tuesday night and early Wednesday another weak disturbance enters the picture and brings a period of unsettled weather later Wednesday and Wednesday night. With slightly cooler air in place from the cold front passage during Tuesday there is a better chance that somebody gets a bit of snow out of this second disturbance and that would most likely be communities across the interior. One caution is the possibility of a coastal low that would enhance the precipitation and possibly bring a more organized area of rain and snow to the area. Many uncertainties remain and the mid week period will have to be monitored closely to see which way it sets up.

Back to drier conditions later Thursday and Friday with cooler temperatures but still slightly above normal.

72 Hour Forecast:

Monday: Mostly sunny and mild, increasing clouds by later in the day. High temperature in the upper 40s to 50 degrees. Southwest winds 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late. Mild, lows in the mid 30s to 40 degrees. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Showers developing. Continued mild. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tuesday night: Chance of showers early, remaining mostly cloudy. Lows in the low to mid 30s.

Wednesday: Early sunshine possible, otherwise becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of showers redeveloping. Cooler, highs in the low 40s.

Wednesday night: Rain and snow showers, possibly a period of light snow inland. Cooler, lows in the upper 20s inland to low 30s along the shore.

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