Forecast discussion: High pressure well offshore now continued to bring dry weather to the capital city of Boston on Tuesday. However, the high will begin to move further into the Atlantic, allowing for a cold front to bring some wet weather as we head into the Fourth. But, for parts of coastal Massachusetts, they will be seeing some effects as Arthur visits for the holiday.
The biggest story right now is down off the coast of Florida. Our first tropical system of 2014 formed late Monday night. As of 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Arthur was centered at 27.8N 79.4W, or about 85 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral, FL. Arthur has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, and is moving to the northwest at 4 mph. At this time, the National Hurricane Center believes Arthur will slowly drift northwest to north for the next 24 hours. Once it hits the Gulf Stream, where there is a “river” of warmer water, the system will intensify, and become a weak hurricane off the coast of South Carolina Thursday afternoon. It will track off the coast of North Carolina and be well offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday afternoon. The next official forecast from the Hurricane Center will be 11 p.m. Tuesday night.
So, what does Arthur have in store for us? For the foreseeable future, Boston and the inland areas may see some heavier rainfall at times. The latest forecast track has Arthur working into the Atlantic and avoiding eastern Massachusetts completely.
Before Arthur, however, we will be dealing with a slow moving cold front now in the Ohio River Valley. This front will slowly make its way towards New England. We will begin to see a few scattered showers early Thursday morning, before more moisture from the front works its way into the region. The front will help create showers and thunderstorms for Thursday evening, and some thunderstorms may create heavy periods of rain. So, street and river flooding remains a possibility at this time.
As we move into Friday, the moisture from Arthur may enhance more rainfall for part of Friday. Depending on the position of Arthur, some parts of the Cape and Islands may see some strong winds and periods of locally heavy rain. The western part of the city may see some clearing skies early Saturday morning. As Arthur moves further into the Atlantic by the middle of Saturday morning, high pressure moving into the Rockies will give us dry, cooler temperatures for the rest of the weekend.
At this time, I do not want to say that the entire Fourth of July will be a washout. But, the closer the center of Arthur stays closer to Southern New England, the greater chance of seeing longer durations of precipitation through the day. To see the latest spaghetti models of Arthur, which show all the hurricane model runs at the same time, click here.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy and very humid with a low of 70.
Wednesday: Partly sunny skies expected and very warm with hazy skies and humid conditions. We will see a high of 91 with south-southwest winds at 13-16 mph.
Fenway Park Forecast (7:10 p.m. vs. Chicago Cubs): Partly sunny, 82.
Wednesday night: Cloudy and very humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight with a low of 72. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 5-8 mph. Patchy fog is expected by sunrise.
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with thunderstorms may be strong at times. We will see a high of 84.
Thursday night: Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm and a low of 69. Thunderstorms may produce heavy periods of rain.
Independence Day: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with winds increasing through the afternoon. We will see a high of 78.
Friday night: Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm. We will see a low of 66. Seas may become rougher along the southern Cape and the Islands.
Saturday: Rain ending by mid-morning, with decreasing winds and partly to mostly sunny skies by noon. Highs 78-81, lows 60-63.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs 81-84, lows 64-67.
Monday: Mostly sunny through the day, with increasing clouds in the evening. Highs 84-87, lows 67-70.
Tuesday: Scattered showers after midnight, ending in the mid-morning. Partly sunny skies expected until the early afternoon, with scattered showers/thunderstorms the rest of the day. Highs 85-88, lows 64-67.