Metro Boston, North Shore and Metro West: After a June of mostly pleasant weather and little rain, especially the second half of the month, we welcomed July with hot and steamy conditions on Tuesday which are more representative of this time of year. It is shaping up to be a very interesting few days ahead as we approach the holiday weekend.
A cold front lies to our west and stalls across the eastern Great Lakes and western New York State. A couple of weak disturbances will move along the frontal boundary and then push into southern Quebec by Thursday night. The stationary front will then push southeast as a cold front and move into the area on Friday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Arthur is developing off the coast of Florida and is now expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the outer banks of North Carolina early on Friday. Arthur is then expected to move well southeast of Nantucket Island late Friday and Friday night to be positioned well east of Boston Saturday morning as a category one hurricane. At this time a direct hit from this storm is unlikely but a glancing blow is still a possibility. Cape Cod and the islands certainly have to pay close attention to this storm as it approaches over the next 48 hours.
Plenty of tropical air is moving up the East Coast and we will continue with uncomfortable humidity levels over the next couple of days and very warm temperatures. More importantly, we could be in for a period of showers and thunderstorms with tropical downpours at times Thursday and Thursday night, possibly lingering into Friday as Arthur moves to our east and the cold front ever so slowly moves through the region. This will impact activities for the evening of the 3rd and possibly the 4th. The exact track of Arthur will be paramount in deciding what kind of day we have on Friday. It could be a rainy day with breezy conditions, or mainly dry with no impact to events that are planned the night of the 4th.
Once the ocean storm moves away the cold front will move well offshore during Saturday and we should experience a nice weekend of weather as high pressure settles into the region.
Expect another day of partly sunny skies, warm temperatures and humid conditions on Wednesday with the mercury hovering around 90 degrees. A brisk south wind will do little to make it comfortable as winds range from 12 to 25 mph. Any showers and thunderstorms should stay well to our west during the day.
Wednesday night, skies become mostly cloudy and there is a chance of showers developing later at night. A passing thunderstorm is possible which could bring a burst of locally heavy rain. It will stay warm and muggy overnight with the lows in the low 70s to around 75 in Boston. Lighter south winds.
Not a great day on Thursday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms around the area with the chance of locally heavy downpours. Not as warm but highs still manage into the low to mid 80s. It remains quite humid. South winds 5 to 15 mph. The showers and storms continue into Thursday night. Lows around 70 with uncomfortable humidity levels ongoing.
Friday, we watch Arthur track to our southeast and east. Depending on the track of the storm and the interaction with the cold front in our vicinity makes for an uncertain outlook at this time. Temperatures not as warm with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees. But, the threat for additional showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing through the day and possibly at night. Lows Friday night in the 60s.
The weekend looks much nicer with sunshine returning Saturday and Sunday. Highs from the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows in the low 60s.
Wednesday’s North Shore beach outlook: Partly sunny, very warm and humid. Breezy south winds gusting to 25 mph. High temperatures in the mid 80s Cape Ann north, upper 80s southern Essex County beaches to Boston. UV Index very high. Water temperatures around 63 degrees. High tide mid afternoon.