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Boston weather: Heavy rain by Tuesday evening

The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on April 15, 2014. Moderate showers and windy conditions are expected.
The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on April 15, 2014. Moderate showers and windy conditions are expected.

Forecast discussion: Thanks to a high pressure system well offshore of eastern Massachusetts, Boston had another day of bright sunshine. However, it was quite windy, as an approaching cold front meets with the high. Inland areas got above 70 degrees, but the southern Cape and Islands only had temperatures near 55 degrees. The temperature difference was due to the winds coming off the cooler ocean. Over the next few days, the great spring weather will be missing.

High temperature forecast for April 15, 2014

As we enter this evening, a cold front now passing through central Ohio at the will bring a few showers before dawn on Tuesday. Along the coastline, we will see patchy fog and patchy drizzle, due to the temperatures falling near the dewpoint temperature. We will see scattered showers through the morning, with heavier rain arriving during the evening, as the front moves into Southern New England. The front will be slow moving, and computer models predict we could see up to an inch and a half of rainfall by early Wednesday morning.

After the cold front passes through, very cold temperatures will remain over New England. This cold air is quite un-normal for this time of the year, as normal high temperatures are in the upper 50’s. Despite bright sunshine, high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will only be in the middle 40’s. We will continue to have below normal temperatures for the rest of the week.

We will begin to see our temperatures rise by Sunday, as the colder air is pushed northward. A cold front will bring showers ahead of it on Saturday, but end by Sunday morning. We will see limited sunshine for the rest of the day. The American model suggests a low pressure system developing off the coast of North Carolina will drift northward and bring the threat of more showers on Monday. The European and United Kingdom models suggest high pressure will be over the Northeast U.S. and giving us drier weather. For now, my confidence in the forecast after Saturday is low.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy and breezy with showers arriving by 3 a.m. Patchy fog and drizzle is expected along the southern coastline. We will see a low of 55.
Tuesday: Breezy with moderate showers in the morning will become moderate to heavy rain by the early afternoon. We will see a high of 66 with south winds of 19-23 mph with occasional gusts of 35 mph. A rumble of thunder is possible by the evening commute.
Tuesday night: Moderate to heavy rain tapers to showers by 2 a.m. Showers end by 7 a.m. It will be colder with the low falling to 36. Winds will shift to the northwest at 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of 35 mph a few hours before dawn.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler with a high of 45.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy and very cold with a low of 32.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 45.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 35.

Extended Forecast:
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-53, lows 37-40.
Saturday: Overcast with scattered showers developing by the late morning. Highs 49-52, lows 40-43.
Sunday: Scattered showers end by mid-morning, and becoming partly sunny by the afternoon. Highs 54-57, lows 40-43.
Monday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the evening. Highs 57-60, lows 42-45.

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