Forecast discussion: For the fourth straight day, Boston received dry weather, along with bright sunshine, to start the day. The good weather came from a high pressure system off the Atlantic coastline. Due to the sea breeze this afternoon, this helped to keep temperatures cooler, so daytime heating did not form the grey clouds that usually form during the afternoon. As we head into tonight, the weather pattern will turn grey over the next few days, but there will still be good weather for the Memorial Day weekend.
A low pressure system centered over northern Michigan will become stationary over eastern New York for the next few days. This low will bring more moisture into the Northeast. But, it will be a second low racing along the cold front towards the Delmarva area that will bring the most rainfall. The low will remain south of New England, but we will see showers and light rain for Thursday night. There is the small chance for a thunderstorm, with some gusty winds and heavier rainfall.
The second low will race out to sea on Friday. But, the lingering low over New York will give us scattered showers on Friday. By Friday night, the low will begin to move offshore, providing us with isolated showers into early Saturday morning. A broader area of low pressure will remain over the region on Saturday afternoon, and the daytime heating may create some scattered showers through Saturday evening. However, by early Sunday morning, warmer air and high pressure will build over the eastern U.S.
We will see a mix of clouds and sun on Sunday, with high temperatures slightly below normal for this time of the year. The best day appears to be Memorial Day, as we will have bright sunshine for the cookouts. By Monday night, clouds will begin to increase once again, as we await a new low pressure system passing to our south. We should see some showers by early Tuesday morning, but the computer models are unsure if the low continues to create showers into Wednesday. The European model has us dry, while the American model keeps showers in the forecast from a low passing over Northern New England. At this time, I am going with the European model forecast, as the upper level dynamics do not fit with the surface features on the American model. Still, my confidence in the forecast after Tuesday is low at the moment.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Increasing clouds by midnight with patchy fog by 4 a.m. We will see a low of 52.
Thursday: Scattered showers through the day with the mercury only making it to 60. Winds will come from the east-southeast at 9-12 mph.
Fenway Park Forecast (4:05 p.m. vs. Toronto): Cloudy, scattered showers, 57.
Thursday night: Showers and light rain with patchy fog developing before dawn. We will see a low of 52 with east-northeast winds of 5-8 mph.
Friday: Scattered showers through the day with a high of 57.
Friday night: Isolated showers ending by midnight and a low of 50.
Saturday: Partly sunny skies in the morning, with the chance for scattered showers by 1 p.m. We will see a high of 65.
Saturday night: Any drizzle/showers end by 11 p.m., with clearing skies. We will see a low of 53.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs 69-72, lows 53-56.
Memorial Day: Mostly sunny and warmer. Increasing clouds expected during the evening. Highs 74-77, lows 57-60.
Tuesday: Cloudy skies after midnight, with showers developing by 3 a.m. Highs 72-75, lows 56-59.
Wednesday: Showers end by 3 a.m. with partly sunny skies. Highs 73-76, lows 55-58.