Forecast discussion: The current radar imagery shows heavy periods of rain moving in a line from Worcester County to eastern Connecticut at the moment. We will see this precipitation right into midnight, with a few lingering showers and possible thunderstorms. In fact, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Boston until 10 p.m. Also, a Wind Advisory is in effect until 10 p.m., as some thunderstorms could create wind gusts of 40 mph. However, as the cold front passes through this early morning, precipitation will diminish by dawn.
We will have mostly sunny skies for Tuesday, and temperatures will be seasonable. The high will give us good weather right into Wednesday evening. However, the computer models are still unsure on what to do with the remnants of Karen. That low will be moving away from Florida this evening, but will remain stationary off the coast of North Carolina Wednesday evening.
The computer models are very unsure whether the low will remain stationary, as the high keeps us protected. The American model believes the low will slowly move northward, and bring showers and possible periods of rain Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon, before all the precipitation moves offshore. The European model believes we will see precipitation, but not until Friday, before the precipitation moves offshore. Also, this stops a cold front now moving through the Pacific Northwest from moving towards the east coast. At this time, I will keep continuity with my forecast from yesterday, keeping showers and periods of rain for most of Thursday evening. However, the confidence remains low, as the computer models continue to suggest different scenarios.
At this time, I have the holiday weekend looking good, as temperatures will be slightly below normal. I will have to keep watching the coastal low, as this will stop the cold front from passing through the region by the weekend.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Rain, heavy at times, with isolated thunderstorms until midnight. Precipitation diminishes to showers after midnight. We will see a low of 56.
Tuesday: Showers end after the morning commute, with clearing skies. Sunny skies expected by mid-afternoon, with a high of 65 and north-northwest winds at 10-13 mph.
Tuesday night: Clear skies with a low of 46. Winds will come from the north-northeast at 6-9 mph/
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 62.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies with a low of 48.
Thursday: Becoming overcast in the afternoon with showers developing in the evening. We will see a high of 65.
Thursday night: Showers with some light rain and a low of 52.
Friday: Showers/periods of rain ending in the afternoon, with partial clearing. Highs 65-68, lows 49-52.
Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 63-66, lows 48-51.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 64-67, lows 49-52.
Columbus Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-66, lows 48-51.