Forecast discussion: High pressure over western Tennessee brought bright sunshine early on Friday, but the colder air in the atmosphere helped create a layer of mid-level clouds in the afternoon. They will slowly burn off this evening, helping to create a cold evening. A Frost Advisory is in effect for Boston tonight, with a Freeze Warning in effect north and south of the capital city.
We will start Saturday with some sunshine, but a low pressure system over central Canada will move down like an Alberta Clipper. The low will bring increasing clouds through the afternoon, with some drizzle and isolated showers by early Sunday morning. Any precipitation will end by the time we all wake up on Sunday, with partly to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day.
We will have cooler temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, as we return to mostly sunny skies.
As we move into the middle of the week, the computer models begin to diverge on the forecast. For the last few days, the American model has been showing a warming trend, as a warm front forming in the central U.S. slowly moves into Southern New England Wednesday night. The front will give us showers and light rain right into Halloween night, before all precipitation from the front ends Friday morning. Temperatures will rebound, as highs reach the upper 50’s to lower 60’s before the weekend. However, the European model keeps a strong high pressure ridge over the area for Wednesday and Thursday. This will continue our dry weather at least into the beginning of the weekend. The United Kingdom model keeps high pressure ridging over us as well, meaning a dry forecast. For now, we will keep the chance for showers in the forecast, as my confidence in the American model right now is quite low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 38.
Saturday: A sunny start, with clouds increasing through the day and breezy with a high of 57. Winds will come from the southwest at 15-18 mph.
Saturday night: Overcast with drizzle and isolated showers arriving around midnight. We will see a low of 42 with west-southwest winds at 11-14 mph.
Sunday: Drizzle/showers end by dawn with partly to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. We will see a high of 57.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 41.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high of 55.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 41.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-55, lows 39-42.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with possible showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs 53-56, lows 42-45.
Halloween: Overcast with possible showers/light rain. Highs 57-60, lows 47-50.
Friday: Possible showers end by mid-morning, with partly sunny skies. Highs 61-64, lows 43-46.