Forecast discussion: We saw little sunshine in Boston on Friday, and we will see more of the same weather wise on Saturday. There will be a better chance at a passing shower on Sunday. Then, I will be watching the computer models very carefully, as they want to create a strong coastal storm for the middle of next week.
An upper level low will remain over northern New England for the weekend, which will help keep moisture over the region. With this low, there are little upper level disturbances which will be passing over Rhode Island the next couple of days. These disturbances may help create scattered snow or rain showers, especially during the afternoon. After looking over the computer models, it appears the best chance for some showers will be Sunday afternoon.
On Monday, the upper level low will move eastward, and will begin to take some of the moisture with it. So, we should see a little more sunshine on Monday. However, some moisture from the south will bring back gray skies for Tuesday.
The biggest concern for next week is a low pressure system that is actually over British Colombia at this moment. Over the next few days, the low will trek towards the southwest, and through the Rocky Mountains. By Monday night, the low will actually weaken, and move into the Tennessee River Valley for Tuesday. The low will then move offshore off the coast of South Carolina by Tuesday night. At this time, a strong upper level low will help strengthen the surface low, and make the system intensify.
We would begin to feel the effects of this system on Wednesday, when we would see increasing clouds by the afternoon, and a possible shower. The main concern for me is: Will the low move north, and towards Long Island? If it does, then we might be seeing strong winds and a mix of rain and snow Wednesday night through Friday morning. At this time, I am putting the worst case scenario in the long range forecast, because the long range computer models are in some basic agreement at this time with this scenario. However, my confidence is still low, because we are still some five days away. Many factors could change before that time period. The storm does move out to sea on Friday, and we will see some clearing skies by the afternoon.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a low of 31.
Saturday: More clouds than sunshine with the chance for an afternoon shower and a high of 44. Winds will come from the northwest at 8-11 mph.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 32. Winds will come from the northwest at 6-9 mph.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a passing snow/rain shower and a high of 41.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 29.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 42.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 33.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs 41-44, lows 32-35.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny during the morning, but becoming cloudy with a passing afternoon shower. Highs 40-43, lows 32-35.
Thursday: Possible snow showers during the early morning, with stronger winds and a wintry mix in the afternoon. Highs 40-43, lows 31-34.
Friday: Snow showers end in the morning, with some sunshine by the afternoon. Highs 42-45, lows 33-36.