Forecast discussion: We are about to embark into a historic snowstorm over the next 48 hours. The computer models have been in great agreement over the last few days, with little changes to the overall forecast. So, what can eastern Massachusetts expect?
At this time, the National Weather Service has a Blizzard Warning in effect for the state. The Blizzard Warning will be from 6 a.m. Friday morning until 1 p.m. Saturday. Now, this warning does not have to do with the snowfall totals. The warning is due to the high sustained winds and low visibilities we can expect during Friday evening into Saturday morning. Also, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern coastline, including the Cape and Islands, Essex County, Suffolk County, eastern Norfolk County, eastern Plymouth County, Barnstable County, and Dukes County. The Coastal Flood Watch will be in effect from 8 p.m. Friday until 12 p.m. Saturday afternoon. This watch is due to possible flooding along coastal regions, due to the strong northeast winds, along with the astronomical high tides over the next 24 hours.
At this time, the coastal low is moving into eastern Georgia, and will slowly move towards the northeast during the overnight. Also, a low pressure system over Illinois will be slowly moving east. However, this low will be slowly dying, but the moisture and dynamics will be transferred to the low over Georgia. This will help create a powerful Nor’easter for Friday night into Saturday. In fact, almost all cities and towns have cancelled school, with parking bans starting Friday morning. To see a complete list of school closings, click here. To see a list of parking bans, click here.
The first snowflakes should reach Boston between 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. We will see light snow into the early afternoon. Around 4 p.m., I’m expecting winds to slowly increase, with snow becoming moderate. By 8 p.m., snow should become heavy, with winds increasing to 25-30 mph. It will become harder to drive, due to bad road conditions and low visibilities. During the overnight hours, snow will be coming down at 1 to 3 inches per hour with winds of 40-45 mph. Wind gusts could reach 65 mph at times. We may see power outages during this time period.
The conditions will not improve until early Saturday afternoon. The heavier snow will begin to taper to light snow by noon, before ending in the late afternoon. For the coastline, Cape, and Islands, there will be a period of time before they see any winter precipitation. The system will actually bring rain at first to the area, before some colder air changes the precipitation to a mix of sleet and rain. As we move into Friday evening, there will be enough cold air to change the precipitation to all snow. For this part of the region, I’m only expecting about 8-12 inches.
For the region from that part of the coastline to Plymouth County, I’m expecting snowfall totals between 12-18 inches. Due to blowing and drifting snow, some areas may see some 2-3 feet drifts. The real winners of this storm will be everyone north of Plymouth County. This region will include all of my Boston readers. This region will remain all snow from the start of the storm. I am expecting snowfall totals of 18 to 24 inches. Some isolated areas, near Worcester County, may see up to 30 inches.
We will have mostly sunny skies for Sunday, before another low pressure system brings some rainfall on Monday. Temperatures will reach the lower to middle 40’s in the day, which will help melt some of the snowpack. The next storm system will not arrive until Thursday, with rain in the morning, before precipitation possibly ending as some light snow showers Thursday afternoon.
I will try to update the forecast one last time Friday afternoon. I would like to give you the most up to date information, because I am vulnerable to losing power in strong storms.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy skies with a low of 23.
Friday: Light snow showers to begin around 9 a.m. Moderate snow will begin around 5 p.m. Winds will be increasing from the northeast at 20-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph. I’m expecting a high of 34.
Friday night: Heavy snow begins around the start of the evening commute. Snowfall amounts could reach 1-3 inches an hour. Winds will be increasing from the north at 30-40 mph with gusts of 65 mph. Visibilities will be near zero, with white out conditions in some areas. I’m expecting a low of 20. Wind chill temperatures will make it feel like 5 to 10 below zero.
Saturday: Moderate to heavy snow tapering off by the late morning. All snowfall ends by the late afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish to 20-25 mph in the afternoon, with a high of 23.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy and very cold with a low of 9.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 32.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 18.
Extended Forecast:
Monday: Showers/light rain by the late morning. Highs 43-46, lows 34-37.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-45, lows 24-27.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny with some possible late evening showers. Highs 40-43, lows 27-30.
Thursday: Showers/light rain in the morning, changing to light snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 40-43, lows 24-27.
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