Forecast discussion: Currently, a low pressure system centered over Ontario, Canada, will bring some showers and rainfall to Boston within a couple of hours. However, with our warm temperatures, the precipitation will remain all rain, even into the early morning on Wednesday. Also, we will see some patchy dense fog at times, as the rain falls on the packs of snow. Any shower activity will end by dawn, with partly sunny skies expected by Wednesday afternoon. However, I would not be surprised if a small wave of energy creates some flurries during Wednesday afternoon.
For the rest of the week, high pressure over the central U.S. will influence our weather. The windy conditions will slowly diminish into Thursday, as the low’s center moves further away from eastern Massachusetts, and high pressure builds closer to us. The next chance at any precipitation will be this weekend.
The computer models are all agreeing that a low pressure system will develop off the coast of North Carolina. However, the models begin to diverge on the actual track of the low. The European, United Kingdom, and Canadian models all agree that the low’s center will remain closer to Southern New England. Only the American model disagrees, tracking the low further east, and away from us. In this scenario, we would see the least amount of precipitation from this model.
Another important factor to consider is the placement of the rain-snow line. With temperatures predicted to be in the upper 30’s, we may see a mix of rain and snow throughout Saturday and Sunday. But, the non-American models keep the rain-snow line well south of us, meaning we would see some decent snowfall accumulations for the third straight weekend. Again, this forecast is still five days away, so there is still time for the models to change their forecast.
We will see dry weather on Monday, before another coastal system brings us the chance for some heavy rainfall for Tuesday night.
72 hour forecast:
Tuesday: Cloudy with rain starting around 5 p.m. with a high of 46.
Tuesday night: Rain showers and patchy fog with a low of 33. Winds will come from the west at 10-13 mph.
Wednesday: Rain showers ending by dawn, with partly sunny skies by the afternoon. There may be a few flurries in the afternoon. We will see a high of 36 with west-northwest winds increasing to 17-21 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies with a low of 22. Winds will come from the west at 13-16 mph.
Thursday: Sunny with a high of 34.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 23.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 40.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 28.
Saturday: A mix of rain/snow showers by the morning. Highs 38-41, lows 30-33.
Sunday: Light to moderate snow in the morning, with a rain/snow mix in the afternoon. Highs 38-41, lows 27-30.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-42, lows 23-26.
Tuesday: Rain showers by the afternoon, with heavy rain during the evening. Highs 40-43, lows 27-30.