Forecast discussion: As we head into the weekend, we will be watching another low pressure system develop offshore, which could give us some significant snowfall by Sunday morning. However, we will not see the same results as last week, when everyone was trying to move almost 2 feet of snow in some spots along eastern Massachusetts.
For this evening, a weak cold front moving into western Massachusetts and Connecticut will help create some flurries and light snow before dawn. We will see light snow during the morning hours, and will see scattered snow showers during the afternoon. We may only see a dusting to an inch by the early afternoon.
The next feature we need to watch is a second low pressure system developing near the coastline of North Carolina. It is this low which will slowly strengthen, and bring another round of snow for Saturday evening. But, the snowfall will be moderate, at about an inch per hour. At this time, the computer models are keeping the second low far enough to the east, so we will not see any snow totals are last weekend. But, the most snowfall is expected to be along the coastline. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for an area along Barnstable County south through Nantucket, including the Cape and Islands, from 7 p.m. Saturday evening until 1 p.m. Sunday afternoon. At this time, I see Boston down into Plymouth seeing 2-4 inches. Everywhere east and south of that line will see 4-6 inches by Sunday morning.
Now, the snowfall amounts are based on the afternoon computer models on Friday. There is still a small chance the low may track back further west, which will help increase the snowfall amounts. If I begin to see a drastic change in the forecast, I will be updating the forecast by tomorrow afternoon.
For Sunday, we will be feeling strong winds, due to the pressure gradient tightening between the leaving low pressure area and a high pressure ridge building over the state. It will remain windy on Monday, and colder air behind the low will move over the Northeast U.S. It will remain cold until Tuesday, when another low pressure system moves towards the area.
We will see warmer air move ahead of the low, with rain showers developing by Tuesday afternoon. As the cold front moves through the area, the precipitation will change to some snow showers, but will end by Wednesday morning. The rest of the week looks dry, as a strong high pressure ridge remains over the eastern U.S. into Friday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Becoming cloudy with flurries and light snow by 3 a.m. and a low of 32.
Saturday: Cloudy with light snow by dawn, and continuing through the morning. There may be times when it stops snowing in the afternoon. We will see a high of 35 with north-northwest winds at 9-12 mph.
Saturday night: Light snow starting after 2 a.m. with increasing winds and a low of 23. Winds will increase to 15-18 mph from the north-northwest by dawn.
Sunday: Snow showers end by the early afternoon and windy with a high of 28. Total accumulations for the state will be 2-4 inches from Boston down to Plymouth, with 4-6 inches south and east of Plymouth, including the Cape and Islands.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy and cold with a low of 14.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high of 32.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 20.
Tuesday: Cloudy with rain showers developing during the afternoon. Precipitation converts to snow showers in the late evening. Highs 42-45, lows 29-32.
Wednesday: Snow showers tapers off by the early morning, with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Highs 40-43, lows 19-22.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 33-36, lows 19-22.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 35-38, lows 20-23.