Forecast discussion: A low pressure system now moving off of Long Island and over southern Rhode Island at the moment brought about 1.25 inches of rain to Boston on Sunday. This low will still affect the Cape and Islands. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 3 a.m. for this area as winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph. Winds will shift from the southeast to the northwest as the low passes east of Cape Cod.
We will begin to see clearing skies as we head towards dawn. It will be breezy during Monday, and temperatures will be decreasing through the day, as an Arctic front passes through the region. Strong high pressure systems will bring us dry weather until Tuesday night, but it will also help bring colder air down into New England. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the middle teens, and New Year’s Eve will not be much warmer.
A weak low pressure system will be passing over New England Tuesday night, and there is the chance we may see passing snow showers as we head towards midnight. The snow showers should end just after the ball drops and we welcome 2014.
Wednesday night will be the coldest night as we start 2014. Computer models are predicting temperatures from the upper single digits to lower teens only. Also, I have continuously been monitoring the models for a possible Nor’Easter type low for Thursday and Friday.
At this time, the American and Canadian models are showing the worst case scenario. We would begin with a low pressure system coming out of the Great Lakes, and producing some light snow Thursday morning. A developing low pressure system would come off the coast of North Carolina, and quickly strengthen as it moves up the coast Thursday night. We would then see the heaviest snowfall Thursday evening into Friday morning, before we see leftover snow showers into Friday afternoon. The European and United Kingdom models take the low further out into the ocean, so we would see less snowfall totals.
Despite being about four days away, it is still hard to say which model is handling the situation the best. What I can say with accuracy is that we will be seeing some amount of snowfall Thursday into Friday. My best guess right now is that the whole state would see snowfall, with about 4-7 inches in the Boston area, and 3-5 inches for the Cape and Islands. However, I am not putting these amounts in stone. There is still too much time until this event happens, and the models may change drastically.
We will see mostly sunny skies for Saturday, as high pressure gives us some dry weather. By next Sunday, a slow moving frontal system will bring us some rain showers during the evening, before mixing or changing to snow showers next Monday morning.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Showers until 11 p.m. before ending. Strong winds expected along the Cape and Islands. We will see a low of 33.
Monday: Mostly sunny skies by the late morning, breezy, and colder with a high only reaching 36. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 17-22 mph with occasional gusts of 30 mph.
Monday night: Partly cloudy and much colder with a low of 13. Winds will diminish from the north-northwest to 7-10 mph.
New Year’s Eve: Mostly sunny until the early afternoon, with increasing clouds. It will be colder with a high only reaching 26.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy skies and chilly with passing snow showers after 7 p.m. They will only last until 1 a.m. We will see a low of 17.
New Year’s Day: Mostly sunny skies by the afternoon, with high clouds by the afternoon. We will see a high of 25.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy and bitterly cold with a low of 10.
Thursday: Cloudy with light snow developing by the beginning of the morning commute. Light to moderate snow expected by the mid-afternoon. Highs 20-23, lows 12-15.
Friday: Light snow by midnight, before ending around 3 p.m. Highs 21-24, lows 7-10.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-26, lows 15-18.
Sunday: Partly sunny during the morning, with possible rain showers in the evening changing to snow showers by the late evening. Highs 33-36, lows 25-28.