Forecast discussion: As we head into the last days of August, we are beginning to see the tug of war between two seasons. As we approach the Labor Day weekend, the first half of the weekend will feel like autumn. But, as we move into the second half of the weekend, we will return to the high humidity and the risk of some inclement weather.
Right now, it feels quite comfortable, as the humidity remains quite low. A cold front that passed through last night brought northwest winds this afternoon, and the mixing of the cooler air with the warmer air over us created those strong breezes Thursday afternoon. East-southeast winds will help bring cooler temperatures on Friday, with highs only in the lower 70’s in the capital city.
It will remain cool on Saturday, as we will remain with easterly winds, although it will begin to turn to the southeast. However, as the high pressure center moves off to the east, our winds will turn to the south-southwest, helping to increase our humidity. We will feel the muggy weather on Sunday, as our temperatures climb into the middle 80’s. Also, there is the risk of seeing an isolated shower or thunderstorm, as a cold front inches towards New England.
For Labor Day, it will look like the worst day of the weekend. I am expecting mostly cloudy skies, but I am not expecting a washout. However, there will be scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm throughout the day. Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the lower 80’s. The front will finally pass through on Tuesday, but there is a slight risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
It appears the computer models continue to disagree on the long range weather forecast. The American model continues to keep the front stalled, allowing for more scattered showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday. But, the European model moves the front out to sea, allowing for a new high pressure center to take over the eastern U.S. At this time, I am not agreeing with the American model. It has been more consistent in its forecast, but the weather factors do not add up. There is no blocking pattern over Greenland right now that would allow the front to remain stationary. So, I will give us dry weather for Wednesday but keeping some moisture in our atmosphere. This would mean some limited sunshine, with the high moving over New England on Thursday. This will give us mostly sunny skies going into the following weekend.
Finally, please be careful if you are heading to any beaches this weekend. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect, due to the high surf created by Cristobal. The advisory was extended into Friday night, although the risk for rip currents will lower to moderate. Seas and swells will continue to slowly decay through the weekend, making it safer to enjoy the waters by Saturday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool with a low of 60.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler with a high of 72. Winds will shift to the east-southeast at 10-13 mph.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 58. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 3-6 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 76.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds by dawn and a low of 65.
Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers or thunderstorms by the mid-afternoon. We will have a high of 83.
Sunday night: Cloudy with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. We will see a low of 70.
Labor Day: Cloudy with scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Highs 81-84, lows 66-69.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 79-82, lows 65-68.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs 79-82, lows 61-64.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 63-66.