Forecast discussion: High pressure ridging to our east brought Boston some bright sunshine, especially by the middle of the afternoon. Just like yesterday, easterly winds off the cooler ocean water helped to create low clouds and keep temperatures in the middle 50’s. As we move into the end of the week, we will see warmer weather, but a series of weak low pressure systems will remain over the region into the middle of next week.
Right now, a cold front over the eastern Great Lakes will very slowly move east of the Ohio River Valley. It will help bring extra moisture into the area, and we will see our dewpoint temperatures rise over the next few days. The extra moisture will help create areas of patchy fog, along with mist and drizzle, on Thursday. This pattern of passing showers, mist, and drizzle will continue into Thursday night. By Friday, a strong low over southwest Tennessee will give us our weekend weather.
The low will strengthen, thanks to an upper level trough already along the eastern U.S. The low will gain some upper level dynamics Friday afternoon, helping to bring increased rainfall rates. So, expect heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms into early Saturday afternoon. The front will move offshore, and the rain will slowly taper to showers, before ending by early Saturday night.
As we head into next week, this low will not be moving very far from us. The upper level trough will become a closed upper level low. This low will give the surface low enough energy to create some passing to scattered showers, especially when we reach the maximum temperature in the early to mid-afternoon. Thanks to the upper level low, we will see a pinwheel of low pressure centers form, and move north to south.
Also, the upper level low will help to bring down some much colder air. High temperatures by Monday will only reach the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. However, we will see some improved weather by the middle of next week. The American model is predicting the upper level low moves offshore, allowing for a high pressure ridge to begin building over the area. The European model, however, continues to keep cloudy skies and possible showers over the area. For now, I will go with an optimistic forecast, as the European model has occasional problems with weather features blocking each other. I feel the European model is keeping this blocking pattern a little too long.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog and a low of 56.
Thursday: Mostly sunny until noon with increasing clouds and passing drizzle or a shower by noon. It will feel more humid with a high of 71. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 9-12 mph.
Thursday night: Drizzle or isolated showers with patchy fog and a low of 60. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 10-13 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers through the daytime hours. Winds will be increasing and I expect a high of 71.
Friday night: Moderate to heavy rain with scattered thunderstorms by 11 p.m. and a low of 58.
Saturday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms through 2 p.m. Rain tapers to showers for the rest of the afternoon, and all rainfall ends in the early evening. We will see a high of 66.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 54.
Sunday: Partly sunny with widely isolated showers by 2 p.m. Highs 64-67, lows 50-53.
Monday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs 59-62, lows 49-52.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs 60-63, lows 49-52.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-66, lows 50-53.