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Boston weather: Cold but dry for Monday

The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 17, 2014. Mostly sunny skies are expected.
The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 17, 2014. Mostly sunny skies are expected.

Forecast discussion: The low pressure system that brought snow and wind to eastern Massachusetts is now moving through Nova Scotia. There was a wide range of snow amounts over the area. Boston itself only received anywhere between 2 and 4 inches. Meanwhile, the Cape and parts of the Islands received as much as 10 inches. The big winner last night was Sandwich, MA which received 15 inches of snow.

High temperature forecast for February 17, 2014

A strong high pressure system over the Great Lakes will control the weather pattern for the next 36 hours. Mostly cloudy skies will remain over the region for part of the evening. Then, the high will help bring drier air into the atmosphere. Due to the new snowfall on the ground, much of the sun’s energy will escape back into the atmosphere. This will result in temperatures falling into the lower teens for Sunday night. Any wind will make it feel like zero degrees to our body. The high will keep us dry for all of Monday, although we will begin to see increasing clouds after midnight early Tuesday morning.

By this time, a weak low pressure system over Canada will bring a cold front through the area. Once again, temperatures will be cold enough to keep the precipitation as snow. However, since the system is moving rather quickly, we will see anywhere between one to three inches by Tuesday evening. A quick moving low pressure system behind the low will bring the risk of some rain showers on Wednesday.

Once this frontal boundary passes, a high pressure system on Thursday will help bring warmer air in from the south. Temperatures during the daytime will slowly rise near 50 degrees by Friday. By early Friday morning, a strong cold front will help bring rain showers, and continue into the early evening. We will see cooler temperatures by Saturday, although high pressure will control our weather.

As we look into next week, the long range computer models do see a low pressure system developing off the Southeast U.S. and works its way up the east coast. At this time, both models agree we will see rain. However, if the track takes the low further out to sea, we may see snow or a wintry mix instead of rain. Because this is still too far into the future, my confidence in next Sunday’s forecast is very low.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and very cold with a low of 13. Wind chills will make it feel like 0 to 5 below zero.
Monday: Mostly sunny skies with a high of 28 and northwest winds of 13-16 mph.
Monday night: Partly cloudy skies at midnight, with increasing clouds thereafter. It will not be as cold with a low of 17. Winds will slowly turn to the east-southeast at 5-8 mph.
Tuesday: Light snow by the end of the morning commute, and ending by the end of the evening commute. One to three inches is possible. We will see a high of 38.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies and not as cold with a low of 28.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated snow/rain showers from mid-morning with rain by the afternoon. Precipitation ends by the mid-afternoon. We will see a high of 42.
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 31.

Extended Forecast:
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 43-46, lows 34-37.
Friday: Cloudy with showers/light rain around 2 a.m. and ending by the early evening. Highs 47-50, lows 32-35.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and cooler. Highs 43-46, lows 30-33.
Sunday: Cloudy with rain developing around noon. Highs 42-45, lows 28-31.

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