Forecast discussion: We had a nice start to the day in Providence on Thursday, with bright, hazy sunshine. By the middle of the afternoon, some puffy cumulus clouds began to take over the skies, especially across the capital city. It remained dry, but we see a repeat of this weather for tomorrow.
A low pressure system over eastern Canada kept a cold front over the Great Lakes for most of the day. But, a few showers did pass over Northern New England. This is where we received the extra moisture for the cloud cover. As we go into Friday, that same low may create some isolated showers during the afternoon and evening. At this time, it seems the northern part of Rhode Island and Bristol County will see the best chance for precipitation. The isolated showers will continue through the evening and early Saturday morning.
The best chance to see some reasonable rainfall will be the weekend. This will break a streak of eight straight Saturdays with no precipitation on this day. A frontal boundary offshore in the Atlantic will actually move west, thanks to an upper level trough moving west as well. This frontal boundary will have a few small low pressure centers along it. The boundary will help create scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, I do not believe it will be an all-day event. I believe the same for Sunday. However, it will be a little more humid, as we will have another day of winds from the southwest.
After looking over the computer models, the frontal boundary will once again be pushed into the Atlantic by early Monday morning. There is the slight chance a weak disturbance will bring one small round of isolated showers late Monday afternoon. Otherwise, a high pressure system will bring dry weather to Southern New England for the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s into the first full week of August.
Finally, the National Hurricane Center continues to watch an organized area of thunderstorms in the central Atlantic. It is about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. The northern part of the circulation is creating winds of 40-45 mph. It is currently moving west-northwest at 20 mph, and watches or warnings for the Islands might be needed later tonight or Friday. The chance for the system to form into a tropical depression within 48 hours is now at 70 percent.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 63.
Friday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. We will see a high of 82 with south-southeast winds at 10-13 mph.
Fenway Park Forecast (7:10 p.m. vs. Yankees): Isolated showers/thunderstorms, 77.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms and a low of 65. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 5-8 mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms by 10 a.m. We will have a high of 77.
Saturday night: Scattered showers/thunderstorms with a low of 65.
Sunday: Scattered showers/thunderstorms with a high of 77.
Sunday night: Precipitation ends after midnight, with partial clearing. We will see a low of 65.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny with possible showers by the evening commute. Highs 78-81, lows 65-68.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs 81-84, lows 65-68.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 63-66.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 62-65.