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Boston weather: Chance of showers this afternoon, periods of rain this weekend

High pressure overhead slides offshore today.
High pressure overhead slides offshore today.

Metro Boston, North Shore and Metro West: August is here and one has to wonder where the heat is. We continue to remain in a trend of slightly cooler than normal temperatures with no immediate sign of significant heat on the way to start the month. July will end with temperatures near normal for the month and rainfall about 1 ¼ inch over normal. The month will have produced only 4 days in which the thermometer cracked 90 degrees with the high for the month 92 in Boston.

This morning the weather map shows high pressure centered overhead with the old frontal boundary remaining well offshore as it has been for most of this week. Low pressure lies across the Gulf States and across southern Ontario. The high will move offshore during Friday promoting a southerly air flow as an increase in moisture overspreads the area through Friday night. However it is not until either late Friday night or Saturday morning that showers break out across the area as low pressure rides up the East Coast.

Expect a mix of clouds and sun Friday with a risk of a shower, possibly a thunderstorm, in the afternoon. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with a south wind 5 to 15 mph, becoming southeast. Clouds are on the increase Friday night, becoming mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower late. Lows in the 60s. South winds 5 to 15 mph, diminishing later at night.

Over the upcoming weekend it is shaping up to be mostly cloudy. Exactly where the low tracks will dictate how much in the way of showers or even a steady rain we get through the weekend. Pinpointing exactly where the rain will be most likely to fall and when is somewhat of a challenge and something the computer models are having some disagreements with. What is most likely to happen is the low to our south rides along the stalled front, with the front retrograding toward us over the weekend. This is going to drag more moisture into our area which in turn suggests we will get rain at some point over the weekend.

Saturday and Sunday, mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers. A period of steadier rain remains a possibility, most likely later Saturday and Saturday night. It remains below normal in the temperature department, highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

By Sunday night or early Monday the front shifts further back out to sea as low pressure moves into the Gulf of Maine. This should promote improving skies by Monday as the threat of rain and or showers ends. But, a cold front approaches later Monday and this brings yet another chance for showers and perhaps thunderstorms later Monday and Tuesday. Highs near 80 early next week, lows in the 60s.

North Shore beach weather:

Friday: Areas of fog early, otherwise a mix of clouds and sun. Chance of an afternoon shower, possibly a thunderstorm. High temperatures in the upper 70s. South winds 8 to 15 mph, becoming southeast. Water temperatures in the mid 60s. Surf only 1 to 2 feet. High tide mid afternoon and UV Index on the high side.

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