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Boston weather: Bringing sunshine back on Thursday

The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 6, 2014. Mostly sunny skies are expected.
The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 6, 2014. Mostly sunny skies are expected.

Forecast discussion: After reviewing the weather for the day, the forecast for Boston was pretty accurate. Snow started around 6 a.m. before snow began to fall at one to one and a half inches per hour. As we moved through the late morning, Plymouth County began to see a mixing with sleet and then rain for the immediate Cape and Islands. As we moved into the start of the evening commute, colder air began to move back into eastern Massachusetts, changing the precipitation back to snow showers. Looking at the current radar, Boston will see scattered snow showers for another hour. Then, it will dissipate to flurries and isolated snow showers. Unfortunately for the Cape and Islands, they will see scattered ocean effect snow showers for the rest of the overnight. By midnight, the Winter Storm Warning still in effect for Boston will be cancelled by midnight. To see snow totals for the Boston area, there is a neat slideshow made by WCVB-TV. To go to the link, click here.

High temperature forecast for February 6, 2014

Now that the snow is out to sea, we will be able to enjoy a few quiet days of weather. A high pressure system located along the eastern Rockies will bring drier air into Southern New England. We will be seeing sunshine from Thursday into Saturday. However, please remain careful if you have to drive during the Thursday morning commute. Due to the freezing temperatures tonight, any slush or puddles of water will likely refreeze. This will cause for some ice or black ice on the roads and highways. So, give yourself a little extra time to make it to your destination.

So, the first half of the weekend will be quiet, with dry weather and increasing clouds by Saturday night. But, what happens on Sunday still remains to be seen. Last night, the American model was predicting a strong low to meander off of Cape Cod, and bring gusty winds and some large snowfall totals. Well, the model decided to do a flip-flop, as Wednesday morning’s model run is totally different.

The model now had a much weaker low pressure system off the coast, with light snow falling early Sunday morning, but ending by Sunday night. The afternoon model run now tells a different story as well. The low will remain offshore, but we will have more precipitation. We will see steady winds, with light to moderate snow starting Sunday afternoon, but continuing into Monday afternoon. The European model sees a weaker low giving us snowfall for the same amount of time. Finally, the United Kingdom model has the low so far out to sea that we would see absolutely nothing from this system, with a high pressure ridge controlling our weather.

For now, I believe the American and European model are handling the end of the weekend better than the other model. But, it seems the models have been overdoing the lows late in the forecast period then weakening them down in the three to five days out timeline. As we move closer to the actual time, the models begin to re-strengthen the low, making meteorologists have to up the snow totals late. For now, I will meet the models somewhere in the middle. Light snow begins Sunday afternoon, with moderate snow possible during the evening hours into early Monday morning. Lighter snow develops by the late morning, before ending in the early afternoon. The computer models all agree we will see colder air returning as a high pressure system from Canada controls our weather. Overnight lows fall back into the upper single digits Monday and Tuesday night.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered light snow showers continuing into midnight. A coating to another inch is possible. Skies will begin to clear after 3 a.m. We will see a low of 18.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 27. Winds will come from the northwest at 6-9 mph.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy and colder with a low of 14. Winds will come from the west at 7-10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 28.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 13.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 29.
Saturday night: Increasing clouds with a low of 18.

Extended Forecast:
Sunday: Overcast skies with light snow falling by 2 p.m. Highs 30-33, lows 18-21.
Monday: Light snow possible through the late morning, before ending in the early afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies expected for the rest of the evening. Highs 26-29, lows 9-12.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 22-25, lows 7-10.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-29, lows 12-15.

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