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Boston weather: Arctic cold returns, more snow likely by Tuesday night

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Metro Boston, north shore and metro west: Winter is poised to deliver another one two punch to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Part 1 is the much colder air overspreading the region tonight as the arctic front that moved through late Monday pushes offshore. Temperatures plummet through the teens overnight as we once again dive into the big chill and the mercury will make very little recovery Tuesday staying in the teens.

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Part 2 is the potential for snow late Tuesday, Tuesday night and early on Wednesday. The question is how much can we expect as the track of this storm is well offshore, yet close enough to potentially give southeastern Massachusetts a moderate snowfall. In the metro Boston area we are going to be close to a moderate snowfall with lighter amounts north and west of the city. A change in the storm track could bring a heavier dose of snow to the forecast area so this will need to be watched very closely over the next 24 hours.

As of Monday afternoon the thinking is that light snow breaks out by late Tuesday afternoon and continues overnight into Wednesday morning. The further north and west of the city the less snow is likely. The closer to the coast you are the better chance for higher snowfall totals. Close call all the way around and the snowfall forecast will need to be adjusted later tonight and certainly early on Tuesday. Stay tuned!

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the south coastal areas of southern New England, including Cape Cod and the Islands, as there is a potential for 4 to 8 inches of snow there. I would not be surprised to see the watch area pushed further north tonight or by early Tuesday morning. Locally, the weather service has a 2 to 4 inch forecast for much of the north shore and western suburbs, trailing back to 1 to 3 inches interior northeast Massachusetts and the Merrimack Valley. AccuWeather has the local area in a swath of 3 to 6 inches, 6 to 12 across southeast Massachusetts, with the local Fox station outlining 2 to 5, with 4 to 8 from the city south. Our estimate is 5 to 9 inches. Any of these numbers can and probably will change over the next 24 hours so do stay tuned!

The low will intensify while over the open Atlantic Waters and become a formidable ocean storm as it churns toward the Canadian Maritimes later Wednesday.

Meanwhile, we will be under the influence of the arctic air mass throughout the storm which means this will be a fluffy light snow in the local area and with gusty winds there will be blowing and drifting snow into Wednesday.

The cold stays put through Friday with generally partly cloudy skies Thursday and Friday.

72 Hour Outlook:

Monday night: Chance of an evening snow shower, otherwise turning partly cloudy overnight. Much colder, low temperatures 9 to 14 degrees by morning. Brisk northwest winds may gust to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Chance of morning sun, otherwise rapidly increasing clouds and frigid. Chance of light snow mid to late afternoon. Little temperature change with highs 14 to 18. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday night: Snow likely, cold and becoming windy. Lows 12 to 16. Increasing north winds gusting to over 30 mph.

Wednesday: Snow likely in the morning, tapering to flurries or snow showers in the afternoon, especially along the coastal plain. Remaining quite cold and windy. Little change in temperature. Northwest winds may gust to near 40 mph early in the day. Expect low wind chill values, perhaps to around zero.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Bitterly cold and breezy. Lows zero to 10, coldest interior sections. Wind chills below minus 10.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and continued cold. Highs 14 to 18, perhaps 20 in Boston.

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