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Boston weather: Another dry day ahead for Massachusetts

The weather map for Southern New England at 10 a.m. EST on February 7, 2014.
The weather map for Southern New England at 10 a.m. EST on February 7, 2014.

Forecast discussion: After several winter snow storms, the United States is actually getting a little break from old man winter. Looking at the current weather map, a strong high pressure system in the Central U.S. is bringing about 90 percent of the country dry weather. The only fly in the ointments is a weak disturbance bringing rain from South Carolina to Florida, and some mountain snow in Washington and Oregon.

Low temperatures for Southern New England on February 6-7, 2014

Boston will continue to see dry weather for at least two more days. This strong high will extend into Southern New England. Despite the sunshine, we will only see minor melting of any snow and ice. Also, with overnight lows falling into the lower to middle teens the next few nights, we will see the creation of ice and black ice on roads and highways. Overnight lows will warm to near 20 degrees Saturday night, as increasing clouds create a blanket over us, keeping any of the sun’s energy from escaping back into the atmosphere.

As we go into Sunday, it appears the computer models are coming to a better agreement. A stronger, primary low will remain well offshore. However, a weaker low pressure center will form somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon. It will help bring some moisture off the Great Lakes, and we will see light snow showers beginning around 3 a.m. Sunday morning.

Right now, there does not appear to be a lot of moisture with the low, so I am not expecting any high snowfall totals. By Sunday night, there is a chance of seeing about one to three inches in total. The low’s center will then begin to move offshore, with light snow showers through late Monday morning. Flurries will continue in the early afternoon, before all precipitation shuts down. A strong high pressure system will then move over the eastern U.S. But, it will bring Arctic air once again over New England. Despite temperatures in the middle to upper 20’s during the day, overnight lows will fall back into the single digits in eastern Massachusetts.

Looking further into the future, the computer models do see a low pressure system developing in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on early Wednesday. The low will then move along the eastern shore and up the coast. At this time, the computer models see the precipitation as being a mix of rain and snow showers. However, this is still six days into the future, and I am not confident in any of the computer models at this time. A few models take the low’s center further out to sea, meaning less precipitation. The United Kingdom model keeps it right along the Long Island coast, meaning more snowfall than rain. For now, my confidence in the models after Wednesday night is quite low.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 14.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 30. Winds will come from the west at 12-15 mph.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 15. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 9-12 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 30.
Saturday night: Increasing clouds with light snow falling by 3 a.m. and a low of 20.
Sunday: Overcast with light snow showers and a high of 30. One to three inches of extra snowfall is possible.
Sunday night: Light snow with a low of 18.

Extended Forecast:
Monday: Light snow possible through the late morning, before ending in the early afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies expected for the rest of the evening. Highs 26-29, lows 9-12.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-25, lows 7-10.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-29, lows 16-19.
Thursday: A mix of snow and rain showers by the late afternoon. Highs 36-39, lows 21-24.

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