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Boston weather: An autumn feel for Thursday

Forecast discussion: As we approach the unofficial end of summer this Monday, Boston was still feeling the dog days of August. For the first time since July 23, Logan Airport reached a high of 90 degrees. However, as we move into the holiday weekend, it will begin to feel a little bit like fall, with the return of summer temperatures by early next week.

For this evening, though, a cold front over central New York will bring the risk of some showers and isolated thunderstorms. The activity will be short lived, as the cold front is expected to move offshore before dawn. We will see clearing skies by the morning commute, with temperatures only reaching the upper 70’s in the capital city.

As we move into the holiday weekend, it appears the first half of the weekend will look just fine. The only fly in the ointment will be the cool temperatures. I am only expecting highs in the lower 70’s for Friday, and the upper 70’s for Saturday. If you heading to the beaches, just please be careful and stay updated about rip currents. As Hurricane Cristobal continues to move off to the north and northeast, we will see heavy surf, high swells, and high rip currents for Thursday and Friday. In fact, a High Surf Advisory is now in effect for Thursday for Bristol County, the Cape, and the Islands.

For the second half of weekend, a slow moving cold front will help bring the risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms for Sunday and Labor Day. I would not call Sunday a washout, but the best risk of seeing some showers will occur by the late afternoon. The front will stall over the area on Monday, giving us the risk for some scattered showers, thunderstorms, and isolated periods of heavy rain. The American model keeps the front over us into Wednesday morning. However, the European model pushes the front out by late Tuesday, with clearing skies on Wednesday. For now, my overall confidence in the forecast after Tuesday morning is low.

Finally, Hurricane Cristobal is centered at 32.7N 71.4W, or about 290 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are at 75m mph, and is moving northeast at 15 mph. The storm will keep hurricane force winds even after it becomes a extratropical storm within 72 hours. The only effects we will feel is high swells and rip tides on south facing beaches over the next couple of days. The Gulf of Mexico will be watched as well, as the American model develops a low pressure system out in the western Gulf of Mexico. There is only a 20% chance it becomes a tropical system within 48 hours.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with passing showers or thunderstorms until 4 a.m. We will see a low of 68.
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies by the late morning with a high of 79. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 13-16 mph.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 60. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 9-12 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler with a high of 73.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 58.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 78.
Saturday night: increasing clouds with a low of 64.

Extended Forecast:
Sunday: Partly sunny with a possible shower or thunderstorm by the late afternoon. Highs 83-86, lows 68-71.
Labor Day: Cloudy with showers and a possible thunderstorm. Highs 79-82, lows 65-68.
Tuesday: Cloudy with possible showers. Highs 79-82, lows 63-66.
Wednesday: Cloudy with showers until the late morning, with partly sunny skies by mid-afternoon. Highs 79-82, lows 57-60.

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