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Boston weather: A possible thunderstorm Monday afternoon

Forecast discussion: High pressure once again gave Boston a wonderful Sunday. But, increasing cloud cover during the afternoon and easterly winds did keep the temperatures down. Logan Airport only recorded a high of 80 degrees. As we move into the evening, we will lose the daytime heating, and we will see the clouds burn off during the night. This will give everyone a chance to see the super moon.

The high will give us some more nice weather on Monday, although there is still the risk for a shower or thunderstorm by the afternoon. A weak cold front in eastern Canada will drop southward this evening, and pass through Southern New England by the afternoon. This may help trigger an isolated shower or thunderstorm until sunset. Then, skies will slowly clear, as we lose the daytime heating creating the fair weather clouds.

The computer models disagree on Tuesday’s forecast. We will lose the high pressure as it moves out to sea Tuesday morning. The American model has been calling for showers to arrive by the evening commute. However, it appears the model is moving the precipitation too fast. It looks like we will see the first raindrops by the late evening, with some periods of rain possible early Wednesday morning. During the morning and afternoon, we will have a risk to see heavy periods of rain in isolated areas, along with some severe thunderstorms. Also, there is the chance for some coastal flooding, as we will be seeing high tide during the morning hours.

By early Thursday morning, the combination of two low pressure systems and a cold front will move out to sea. Colder air behind the front will linger over New England on Thursday, as daytime highs will only be in the middle 70’s. A weak disturbance may give us a passing shower early Friday morning, before high pressure to our west takes over. But, a low pressure system over Quebec will give us the risk for possible showers late Saturday afternoon. A new high pressure ridge will build over us by next Sunday, giving us a nice day to end the weekend.

Meanwhile, Hawaii will be spared by Hurricane Julio, as the system tracks to the west-northwest. It will remain north of the island, but Hawaii will still see high surf and swells on the north and eastern sides. Julio will be a minimum Category 1 hurricane by the time it passes north of the island this evening. For more on the story, click here.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 64. Patchy fog is possible in low-lying areas and valleys.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high of 82. There is the slight chance for a passing shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 10-13 mph.
Monday night: Skies will become clear to partly cloudy with a low of 65. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 7-10 mph. Patchy fog is possible, especially along the coastline.
Tuesday: Cloudy skies by the early afternoon with a high of 80.
Tuesday night: Showers by 10 p.m. with periods of light rain and a low of 67.
Wednesday: Showers with periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms at times. The thunderstorms have the potential to be severe. We will see a high of 76.
Wednesday night: Precipitation tapers to showers by 7 p.m. with all precipitation ending by 11 p.m. We will see a low of 65.

Extended Forecast:
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies and quite cool. Highs 74-77, lows 60-63.
Friday: A possible shower during the early morning; otherwise, partly sunny skies by dawn. Highs 75-78, lows 60-63.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny with possible showers by the late afternoon. Highs 76-79, lows 61-64.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 62-65.