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Boston weather: A few showers for Saturday

The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on March 22, 2014.
The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on March 22, 2014.
www.weather.gov

Forecast discussion: Boston received a mix of sunshine and fair weather clouds on Friday. We received this weather thanks in part to a high pressure ridge that extended into Southern New England. The ridge will begin to break down this evening, as a low pressure system over Indiana moves eastward. It will bring some precipitation by the middle of Saturday morning. Some higher elevations will see a mix of rain and snow showers before changing to all rain by the late morning. Once the cold front passes to our south in the late afternoon, skies will begin to clear tomorrow night. Behind this front will be another blast of Arctic air. This air mass will not make its way into eastern Massachusetts until Sunday night. But, for Sunday night and Monday, it will feel more like late January than late March.

High temperature forecast for March 22, 2014
www.weather.gov

As we get past Tuesday, the computer models continue to forecast a significant low pressure system forming off the east coast of Florida. The low will gain some upper level dynamics moving over the system from the upper levels of the atmosphere. This will help create an old fashioned Nor’Easter. The biggest problem this far out in the forecast is the exact track of the low. The European and Canadian models push the low further out to sea, which is the opposite of their forecast yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom and American models are now bringing the low closer to the west. This is also the opposite of their thinking yesterday afternoon.

For now, I am going to go in between of the forecast tracks. Right now, we would see light to moderate snow and gusty winds. The winds will not be strong enough to create blizzard conditions. However, if the low moves closer to New England, we would see moderate snowfall and near blizzard like wind conditions. Again, this forecast is very track dependent, so I will continue to monitor the models throughout the weekend. Please check back in again during the weekend to get my latest forecast.

The storm will move out of the area by Wednesday evening, as a weak high pressure system brings drier weather for Thursday. We will see some limited sunshine next Friday morning, but an approaching cold front will create some showers by the middle of the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound as they climb into the upper 40’s by the end of the workweek.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 30.
Saturday: Limited sunshine at 7 a.m. and windy with a few showers by 9 a.m. Showers should end around 4 p.m. with partly sunny skies. We will have a high of 51 with west-southwest winds of 17-22 mph and gusts of 35 mph.
Saturday night: Skies will clear with a low of 31. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 8-12 mph.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 41.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy and cold with a low of 17.
Monday: Mostly sunny but quite cold with the high only reaching 28.
Monday night: Clear skies with a low of 18.

Extended Forecast:
Tuesday: Increasing clouds through the early afternoon with light snow starting by the evening commute. Highs 35-38, lows 25-28.
Wednesday: Cloudy and windy with light to moderate snow. Snow ends by 6 p.m. Highs 35-38, lows 21-24.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-43, lows 30-33.
Friday: Cloudy by the afternoon with showers by 3 p.m. Highs 48-51, lows 36-39.