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Boston weather: A few inches of snow by early Monday

The high temperatures for Southern New England on February 10, 2014.
The high temperatures for Southern New England on February 10, 2014.www.weather.gov

Forecast discussion: Over the last several days, a strong high pressure system over the Central U.S. brought dry weather to eastern Massachusetts. It gave us a little break from seeing snow falling from the skies. But, the high is starting to break down, as a low pressure system over western Pennsylvania moves east. This low will help bring some snow showers early Sunday night. Some areas may see some moderate snow bands over the area. I’m expecting these bands to move over the area between the time of 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. By the time the morning commute gets started, all snow showers will come to an end. I am only expecting between a dusting to as much as 2 inches in the capital city. Due to the ocean effect snow showers for the Cape and Islands earlier on Sunday, this area may see up to 3 inches of total snowfall.

Snowfall totals by Monday morning, February 10, 2014
Snowfall totals by Monday morning, February 10, 2014www.whdh.com/weather

As we move through Monday afternoon, sunshine will try to break from behind the clouds. Despite the sunshine, our temperatures will be falling below normal once again. A deep upper level trough will bring Arctic air back over Southern New England, starting Monday night. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle teens Monday and Tuesday evening. High temperatures will only make it to the lower to middle 20’s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing clouds Wednesday night will blanket us, keeping some of the sun’s energy from leaving the atmosphere. Temperatures will only fall to the lower 20’s.

The computer models have been having a hard time coming to a basic agreement about the next storm system. A low pressure system will begin to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and then follow along the eastern coastline. The track if the low is the most important aspect. At this time, with the exception of the American model, the low stays offshore and to our east. This means we would stay in the colder part of the low. This means we would see some decent snowfall Thursday into early Friday morning. However, the American model puts the low’s center further to the west. So, we would start off as snow then change to a wintry mix, before changing over to rain. At this time, my confidence level still remains low. The low’s track changing even 30 miles either way greatly changes the precipitation type, and therefore the snowfall amounts.

The models do agree that any snow showers will end by early Friday morning. A high pressure system slowly moves over the Mid-Atlantic and gives us dry weather for next weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable during the day, although Saturday night’s low temperatures are slightly below normal for the middle of February.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Light snow showers, although some areas may see moderate snow between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. We will see a low of 22.
Monday: Light snow showers ending by 7 a.m. Sunny skies expected the rest of the day. We will see a high of 29. About a dusting to 2 inches is possible, with the highest snowfall along the western side of Cape Cod and the Islands. Isolated areas could see up to 3 inches. Winds will come from the northwest at 11-14 mph.
Monday night: Partly cloudy and cold with a low of 15. Winds will come from the northwest at 11-15 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 24.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and very cold with the mercury falling to 12 degrees.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by the evening commute. We will see a high of 27.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with possible patchy fog and warmer with a low of 21.

Extended Forecast:
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with snow changing to sleet and rain by the afternoon. Precipitation changes back to light snow in the overnight. Highs 38-41, lows 28-31.
Friday: Early morning snow showers ending in the morning. Partly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. Highs 39-42, lows 24-27.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 34-37, lows 21-24.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs 33-36, lows 20-23.