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Boston weather: A February thaw for Thursday

The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 20, 2014.
The weather map for Southern New England at 1 p.m. EST on February 20, 2014.

Forecast discussion: The current radar imagery shows some heavy rain moving into Boston at the moment. This rainfall will only last for a couple of hours, as the low pressure system that brought precipitation on Wednesday moves out to sea. High pressure over the Ohio River Valley begins to clear our skies before dawn. But, be careful if you have to drive during the early morning of the commute. Temperatures will fall below freezing, allowing for any puddles or slush to refreeze. This might create some black ice on secondary roads.

High temperature forecast for February 20, 2014

We will see bright sunshine and very mild temperatures on Thursday, allowing for more snow to melt. Also, temperatures tomorrow night will remain above freezing, so I am not expecting any black ice. However, I am expecting another round of showers and light to moderate rain for Friday. A strong low pressure system now located in eastern New Mexico will bring more precipitation to the region. But, it will be in the form of rain. Also, do not be shocked if you hear a rumble of thunder in the sky. There will be just enough upper level dynamics for that to happen.
The cold front associated with the low will pass through Friday night, with rainfall ending just before we turn to Saturday. Over the weekend, temperatures will slowly begin to fall back to winter like temperatures. But, we will still see some melting of our snow pack.

Going into early next week, Arctic air will once again come down into the eastern U.S., bringing below average temperatures. However, the weather pattern will be quiet. The next chance at any significant precipitation will be next Wednesday, as the long range computer models continue to suggest some sort of Nor’easter moving up the east coast. However, my overall confidence after Tuesday’s forecast is low. Last night, the American model was thinking the exact same way for Tuesday. Although, the latest European model run is agreeing with the American model at the moment.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Lingering showers/rain end by 11 p.m., with clearing skies. We will only see a low of 30.
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, with thickening clouds through the late afternoon. We will see a high of 46. Winds will turn to the west-southwest at 8-11 mph.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers and light rain beginning by 10 p.m. and a low of 35. Winds will be southeasterly at 5-8 mph. Patchy fog is possible after midnight.
Friday: Cloudy with showers/light rain in the morning, with heavier rain by the late afternoon. We will see a high of 50.
Friday night: Rain ends by midnight, with mostly cloudy skies the rest of the overnight and a low of 34.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and slightly cooler with a high of 47.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 32.

Extended Forecast:
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-42, lows 24-27.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a stray morning flurry. Highs 31-34, lows 17-20.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs 29-32, lows 18-21.
Wednesday: Cloudy with possible light snow. Highs 30-33, lows 21-24.

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