Today's RealClearPolitics average of polls for the special election for senate from New Jersey shows Newark Mayor Cory Booker leading, by a 50.3 percent to 37.3 percent margin, over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. The two are competing in the special election to replace the late U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg. The polls have shown the race getting closer, including the latest poll released, conducted by Richard Stockton College, which shows Booker leading by his smallest margin yet, 50 percent to 39 percent. Booker had a lead as high as 35 percent earlier this year, and now leads by margins between 11-13 percent in the most recent polls.
The graph above shows the trend in the polls during the course of this campaign between Booker and Lonegan since they won their respective party nominations. The race is getting closer but there is not enough time left for Lonegan to likely catch up with Booker. Based on the analysis conducted by this author, Booker should win the race with 53 percent of the vote, to Lonegan's 45 percent of the vote with the remaining two percent going to third party and independent candidates.
Lonegan, a conservative Republicans and former state director of Americans for Prosperity in New Jersey, has strong support from the conservative movement and TEA party groups in the state. Booker is viewed by many in the political establishment as an up and coming Democrat political leader and is expected to win the seat in this election. Booker has already been speculated about as a future candidate for vice president or possibly even president. Many had also expected him to challenge Chris Christie for governor of New Jersey, but he opted ot seek the senate seat instead.
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