Showers, and even a few thunderstorms, have been reported across lower MI, southeastward across Ontario, western NY and northwestern PA today. This activity will continue to push eastward as a warm front lifts northward across the region.
South of the warm front across OH, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through this afternoon.
Tonight, most of the rainfall will taper off for a short time as much of the region gets into the warm sector of a strengthening storm over the lower Great Lakes. The storm will move northward through the Great Lakes later tonight, dragging a strong cold front eastward across the region.
After midnight, showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain and gusty winds, will move into eastern lower MI and western OH. These storms will sweep eastward across the area as the cold front moves through. Winds ahead of and just behind the cold front could gust in excess of 45 mph.
Temperatures will surge into the 50s and 60s ahead of the front, then drop sharply during the afternoon as colder air spreads across the region from the northwest. Rain showers will begin to change to snow showers Wednesday afternoon across lower MI, southward into northwestern OH, then across the remainder of the area Wednesday evening.
Snow showers will continue through the day on Thursday as cold air deepens across the region, Thursday afternoon, the snow showers will become more confined to areas downwind of the lakes where lake effect snow showers will increase.
Lake effect snow showers will continue through the day on Friday and even into Saturday as very cold air spills across the Great Lakes. There are some uncertainties regarding the wind trajectory and the available moisture, but some favored snow belts from northeast OH, northeast to western NY could pick up significant snow accumulations from this lake effect event.
On Saturday, snow showers will likely become more widespread as a clipper moves southeastward across the region.
Cold temperatures and snow showers will likely persist into Sunday.