Bet on Guerrero-Mayweather for May 4 (unless Floyd’s finally ready for Pacquiao)

You probably know as much as I about the pending negotiations for a Robert Guerrero-Floyd Mayweather fight, except I’ve been getting most of my information from Guerrero’s camp. Negotiations have been ongoing since Guerrero’s Nov. 24 mugging of Andre Berto , the biggest victory of the Gilroy fighter’s career.

Mayweather and Guerrero are both promoted by Golden Boy Promotions, whose chief honcho, Richard Schaefer, told the Los Angeles Times this week that Mayweather will be fighting someone on May 4 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. That someone has been widely reported to be Guerrero, who cracked the top 10 in The Ring’s pound-for-pound rankings recently. (Mayweather is No. 1.)

That they’re talking is about all a responsible newspaper can report at this point, which is why the San Francisco Chronicle, which gave my Guerrero-Berto advance story conspicuous play Nov. 23, can’t yet go overboard on announcing the Mayweather-Guerrero proceedings, although rest assured the Chronicle considers that a big story.

There are just a couple of off-putting developments. The first is that a neurosurgeon in the Philippines contended recently that Manny Pacquiao is showing signs of Parkinson’s syndrome. Now, this neurosurgeon hasn’t actually examined Pacquiao, who has lost his past two fights and probably should fight only one or two more, but the story took hold Friday.

I’ll bet you Mayweather’s finally ready to fight Pacquiao, or at least now figures beating him is a surer thing than beating Guerrero.

The other off-putting development transpired exactly a year ago, when Guerrero was calling out Mayweather without the benefit of having his subsequent welterweight championship victories over Berto and Selcuk Aydin under his belt.

Get a load of how much of this story last year could have been written last week:

Robert Guerrero's publicist has pulled off one of the most successful public relations campaigns in recent memory by convincing the boxing media that “The Ghost” from Gilroy is going to fight Floyd Mayweather on May 5. Yep, Cinco de Mayo.

Mario Serrano's campaign on Guerrero's behalf, no doubt stoked also by Golden Boy Promotions, got Guerrero mentioned prominently last week in the major Los Angeles newspapers, including the L.A. Times.

That may be topped in the next couple of days by the actual announcement of the fight. In fact, you ought to place a bet immediately on that proposition.

I can’t say it any more emphatically than that this time. Of course, last year I was wrong. Mayweather beat Miguel Cotto in that time slot instead and then did three months’ time for assault (and hasn’t fought since). Three years ago Mayweather beat Shane Mosley in that time slot. Six years ago it was Oscar De La Hoya.

I can only say Guerrero has been part of actual negotiations this time and that his presence would fit that Cinco de Mayo niche as much as anyone.

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, SF Boxing Examiner

"Welterweight Champion" Colin Seymour's theater and classical music reviews appear frequently in the San Jose Mercury News, where he edited copy from 1983 to 2007 and wrote about boxing and sports broadcasting. He also worked at newspapers in Vermont, Texas and Washington. Contact Colin.

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