In a decision that surprised no one at this point, the Directors Guild of America has named Ben Affleck the Best Director of 2012 for his film "Argo."
This has given his film all three top guild awards: The Producers Guild of America, The Directors Guild of America, and the Screen Actors Guild (Best Cast). This would seem to put the film at the very top as the one to beat for Best Picture on Oscar night, but it might not be quite as over as it seems.
If we take a look at the seven Oscar nominations that "Argo" received from the Academy, it would seem that the film is ONLY favored for Best Picture at the moment. Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing are far more likely to go to other nominees. Best Supporting Actor is likely to go to Tommy Lee Jones for "Lincoln" (or perhaps Philip Seymour Hoffman will pull a small upset for his performance in "The Master").
Best Original Score is likely to go to "Life of Pi" or "Lincoln." "Zero Dark Thirty" is favored to win Best Film Editing. Finally, Best Adapted Screenplay is heavily favored to go to Tony Kushner for his screenplay to "Lincoln," though, if "Argo" truly is the favorite film of the evening, there could be a last minute switch, as happens sometimes. The WGA and Scripter awards will be rather telling in the next few weeks.
If "Argo" does indeed end up winning Best Picture, it looks like it would win it with very little (or possibly nothing) else. The way it stands now, "Lincoln" is likely to win more awards, what with it being favored in the Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actor categories. The thing is, if "Argo" is to win, it would more than likely need a victory in another major category, such as Adapted Screenplay or Film Editing, to go along with it.
Then again, the Best Director snub for Affleck along with the whopping 12 nominations for "Lincoln" could also be very telling. History has been made throughout this awards season, so right now, many things still seem possible. Speaking of history, this will only be the seventh time the DGA and the Academy's choices for Best Director have not matched up, as well as only the third time a DGA winner has failed to get a Best Director nomination from the Academy (Steven Spielberg for "The Color Purple" and Ron Howard for "Apollo 13" are the other two).
This is the most fascinating awards season to come along in quite some time. For once, the top categories remain up in the air. Spielberg seems favored to win Best Director, but that's mainly because his main competition is not there. "Argo" seems favored for Best Picture, but as I've already discussed, that might not seem as concrete as it appears.
Could we see a last minute switch to "Lincoln" come Oscar night? We'll just have to wait to find out. The Oscars will air live on Sunday, February 24th.
Comments