This summer you are going to hear or read to common themes, showers and thunderstorms and back door cold fronts. The summer is when everyone looks forward to out door activities like baseball games. Well, if you are a Yankee fan, you are about to garner a greater dislike for New England and Boston as a marine air mass off the Gulf of Maine and Canadian Maritime area attempts to constantly invade your Summer plans.
Today is no different as conditions will start very much Summer like with high levels of humidity and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80's this afternoon on the heels of a southwesterly wind. However, these conditions will come to a rapid end this evening as a cold front currently over New England will crash to the south and southwest through New Jersey.
Late this afternoon through this evening, expect showers and thunderstorms to become widespread as the cooler, marine air mass invades from the Atlantic. The majority of the thunderstorms are expected to be strong but below severe levels. An isolated thunderstorm that reaches severe levels will be capable of very heavy downpours, frequent lightning, hail, and wind gusts over 50 mph. Most of the thunderstorm though will feature very heavy rainfall leading to the threat for urban and small stream flooding. Rainfall amounts of a quarter to a half an inch can be expected with localized amounts over an inch. Winds will veer from the southwest to the east at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 60's for lows by tomorrow morning.
All of New Jersey will be behind the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday with overcast skies, periods of showers, and fog. The fog may be locally dense at times leading to visibility falling below 2 miles at times. Winds will be from the east at 10 to 20 mph through the forecast period. Temperatures for Wednesday afternoon will rise only into the mid to upper 60's. Temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid 50's for lows and mid to upper 60's for highs.
On Friday, the back door cold front will retreat with additional showers and thunderstorms expected. This time, the warm air will invade leading to an increasingly unstable environment thus the threat for severe thunderstorms will increase as the frontal boundary lifts northeast back towards New England. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50's for lows and mid to upper 70's for highs.
The good news is that timing will be just right to have high pressure in control for this weekend with scattered clouds to clear skies on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. With the pleasant weather conditions, temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50's for lows and mid to upper 70's for highs.