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At Odds With the House of Saud .... Why the White House Should be Worried.

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In the Middle East the Saudi Arabian government sees major adjustments in the distribution of power among great-powers in the international community usually take the form of hegemonic wars between them and, as such, precipitate an “overthrow” of the status quo (SQ) – and, more often than not, a new world order. According to Morgenthau, such major adjustments are the result of the “imperialist” policies of “great-powers.” Indeed, a variety of factors, forces and developments can cause great-powers to adopt and implement imperialist policies .

Traditional normal can be of two types. Regarding the first type, can be proactive or reactive responses to perceived and/or actual challenges and threats to a great-power’s security. Such are direct and intentional in nature and objective, and seek overtly to overthrow the status que as a means by which to preserve or promote a great-power’s security. Essentially, the purpose and goal of such are immediate, direct, intentional and overt from the beginning of their adoption and implementation. Such normal also typically involve direct, and often immediate, military confrontation with other great-powers.

The apprehension that troubles the House of Saud and the Arab League powers is that when outside powers intervene they may begin as “non-imperialist” great-power responses to security challenges or threats from minor, middle or unconventional (i.e., terrorist and/or insurgent) “powers” that neither threaten to overthrow the status que nor foment suspicions from other great-powers of their intentions to do so. Over time, however, such challenges, initially perceived or underestimated as “lesser” threats to national security, eventually evolve into far more significant obstacles. Consequently, what began as limited “non-imperialist” responses may become comprehensive imperialist policies and campaigns aimed at overthrowing a regional, or the global, status que. In such instances, the nature of the challenge or threat and a great- power’s likely success in effectively eradicating it more or less necessitates an overthrow of the SQ.

The current rift between the White House and the House of Saud can be directly linked to the Obama Administration’s unwillingness to support Mubarak and the consequences and instability that ensued nearly engulfing the region. As a non regional power it is imperative that the US go to great to extent to maintain normal relations with Saudi Arabia and Arab League members.... the security implications for Israel and US interest hang in the balance.



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