It feels like the guesswork has finally been taken out of this year’s Academy Awards. What started out as a neck-to-neck year – will it be “Silver Linings Playbook”? “Lincoln”? “Les Mis”? – has yet again morphed into another Oscar season that seems predestinated for next to no surprises. And it’s (usually) all thanks to the Guilds (aka the award shows that actually matter). You see, the Guilds are comprised, in part, of many of the same people who vote for the Oscars, so when someone wins a Guild award it’s a sure sign the person has the respect of his/her colleagues. This often – but not always – translates into Oscar victory.
Falling on this past weekend were the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Producers Guild Awards…and Argo took home the big prize at both. The film’s been on a non-stop roll since Ben Affleck’s Oscar directing snub, and if it goes on to win the big prize it’ll make Oscar history: Only three other films have ever won best picture without a directing nod: “Wings” (1928), “Grand Hotel” (1932), and “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989). Don’t be surprised if “Argo” joins that list come Oscar night, Feb. 24th.
I’ve been a big “Argo” supporter since its release, and I’ll be happy if it wins Best Picture. But I must say, voting for it for best ensemble (the SAG Awards’ version of Best Picture) is just silly. Sure, it had great performances…but I think it’s safe to say that the performances in “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Lincoln” blew “Argo’s” out of the water. And seeing “Argo” win that award just sealed it for me: They’re not voting for the best, they’re voting for their favorite. And usually it’s the favorite that takes it all.
The SAG Awards didn’t have many surprises, but there was one huge one: The cast of the British drama "Downton Abbey" won Outstanding Ensemble, beating out favorite "Homeland." Additionally, Jennifer Lawrence’s win let her emerge as the Best Actress favorite in the tight race between herself and "Zero Dark Thirty's" Jessica Chastain.
Check out the full list of winners for both the SAG Awards and the PGA awards below:
Outstanding Ensemble in a Motion Picture: "Argo"
Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Outstanding Female Actor in a Leading Role: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Outstanding Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Outstanding Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"
Outstanding Ensemble in a Drama Series: "Downton Abbey"
Outstanding Male Actor in a Drama Series: Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Outstanding Female Actor in a Drama Series: Claire Danes, "Homeland"
Outstanding Ensemble in a Comedy Series: "Modern Family"
Outstanding Male Actor in a Comedy Series: Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Outstanding Female Actor in a Comedy Series: Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Outstanding Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries: Kevin Costner, "Hatfields & McCoys"
Outstanding Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries: Julianne Moore, "Game Change"
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture: "Skyfall"
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a TV Series: "Game of Thrones"
Picture: Argo; Producers: Ben Affleck, George Clooney, Grant Heslov
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph ; Producer: Clark Spencer
Documentary: Searching For Sugar Man ; Producers: Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn
TV movie or mini-series: Game Change (HBO); Producers: Gary Goetzman, Tom Hanks, Jay Roach, Amy Sayres, Steven Shareshian, Danny Strong
Homeland (Showtime); Producers: Henry Bromell, Alexander Cary, Michael Cuesta, Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, Chip Johannessen, Michael Klick, Meredith Stiehm
TV Comedy: Modern Family (ABC); Producers: Cindy Chupack, Paul Corrigan, Abraham Higginbotham, Ben Karlin, Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd, Jeff Morton, Dan O'Shannon, Jeffrey Richman, Chris Smirnoff, Brad Walsh, Bill Wrubel, Danny Zuker
Non-Fiction TV: American Masters (PBS); Producers: Prudence Glass, Susan Lacy, Julie Sacks
Live Entertainment & Talk: The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) ; Producers: Meredith Bennett, Stephen Colbert, Richard Dahm, Paul Dinello, Barry Julien, Matt Lappin, Emily Lazar, Tanya Michnevich Bracco, Tom Purcell, Jon Stewart
Competition TV: The Amazing Race (CBS); Producers: Jerry Bruckheimer, Elise Doganieri, Jonathan Littman, Bertram van Munster, Mark Vertullo
Sports: Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel (HBO)
Children's TV: Sesame Street (PBS)
Web Series: 30 Rock: The Webisodes (www.nbc.com)