As we are nearing the shoulder season and transition months of September, October, and November (SON), many decision makers in the energy trading business want to know if there are any signs of heat to come the second half of August, specifically over the central and eastern U.S. The answer to that is it doesn't look like we will have a warm second half of August.
Why?? The reason why for the upcoming week is due to two things: 1) the configuration of our jet stream pattern (a large scale weather pattern) over the Northern Atlantic and 2) the chance for increased moisture thus convection/precip. this week.
The dominant presence that we've seen for much of the month of August thus far, a toughing pattern over the North Atlantic and ridging near the Hudson Bay region denotes a negative phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This large scale configuration usually results in cooler than normal temperatures over the East Coast, especially the Northeast.
Texas will experience a warming trend with heat risk arising at the end of the workweek. Looking ahead in the week 2 (last week in August) August 24-30, current models are indicating a more cooler bias than previous runs.
All in all, the cool (bearish) weather pattern experienced over the eastern 2/3rds of the nation the second half of July, carried over into August and looks to continue through much of the second half of August resulting in a cool August.
Stay tuned for what to expect as we head into September and Fall 2014.
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