A powerful storm system is set to impact the Capital Region’s weather through at least Thursday morning. The low pressure area associated with the storm system was beginning to intensify over the Ohio Valley this morning, and is forecast to track north of east to a position off the New Jersey coast by this evening, and then to the Gulf of Maine and Canadian Maritimes during the day on Thursday.
The Capital Region will be located to the south of a rather impressive surface temperature contrast zone that will be one of the driving factors for precipitation production with this system. As such, temperatures will start the day today above freezing, but gradually decrease during the course of the day. Near freezing temperatures are forecast to be over the region by sunset as northerly winds drive colder air into the area at the surface. Meanwhile, temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will remain above freezing through at least the early evening hours across the Capital Region, which implies that precipitation may take the form of a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and/or snow. The evening commute may be a bit difficult across the region.
Overnight, as the storm moves to our east, colder air will infiltrate all levels of the atmosphere, allowing for a changeover to snow in all areas. Some accumulations are forecast for the overnight period, especially over areas to the north and west of the Capital Region, and in interior New England, where significant snow accumulations are forecast.
Winds will also increase markedly across the region tonight, with gusty conditions expected through the day Thursday as the low pressure system will have become quite strong and deep by this point, and will be ‘doing battle’ with an area of high pressure attempting to build in from the upper Midwest. Temperatures will become quite cold in the wake of this system during the day on Thursday, and the forecast gusty winds may bring wind chills down to dangerous levels at times, especially during the overnight hours Thursday.
High pressure builds into the region to close out the work week, and as we head into the weekend, some temperature moderation is expected. A weak system looks to graze the area on Saturday, and may bring with it a slight chance for some rain and/or snow showers.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
**National Weather Service WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY In Effect From 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon Through 11 AM EDT Thursday**
Today: Rain showers, mixing with freezing rain, sleet and snow at times. Early high in the upper 30’s with temperatures slowly falling to near 30 late in the day. Northerly winds 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. An inch or less of snow, along with minor icing accumulation, possible by dark.
Tonight: Freezing rain and sleet mixing with and changing to all snow during the evening. Periods of snow overnight. Becoming windy and turning sharply colder. Low 10 to 15. Northwest winds increasing to 15 to 30 MPH with some higher gusts to near 35 MPH possible. Wind chill temperatures of 5 to 15 below zero. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible overnight.
Thursday: Snow tapering to snow showers during the morning. Intervals of clouds and sunshine by afternoon. Windy and cold. High near 20. Northwest winds 15 to 30 MPH with some higher gusts to near 35 MPH possible at times. Wind chill temperatures zero to 10 below zero. Additional snowfall accumulations of an inch or so possible.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Low near 5 above zero. Northwest winds 5 to 15 MPH. Wind chill temperatures of 10 to 20 below zero.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High near 35. South winds 5 to 10 MPH.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a 30 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 45 and low near 30.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and windy. High near 35 and low near 15.
Monday: Mostly sunny and windy. High near 30 and low near 10.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 10.