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And the winner is . . . (Predictions for Mayweather vs Mosley)

Summary:

PHOTOSExaminer.com (Marv Dumon) provides an analysis and prediction for the biggest fight of 2010: the WBA welterweight title bout between Floyd Mayweather Jr. (40-0) and Shane Mosley (46-5) set for the MGM Grand on Saturdayday, May 1, 2010 in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Isaac Brekken)


   by Marv Dumon

Sports:       International Sports Examiner

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 International Sports Examiner              

        - b o x i n g -

April 30, 2010 - Live from Las Vegas, NV

   2009's biggest fight was the WBO welterweight title showdown between co-pound-for-pound king Manny Pacquiao (51-3-2) and then-champion Miguel Cotto (34-2), a bout Pacquiao won via 12th round TKO.

The biggest fight of 2010 is here, this time featuring arguably co-pound-for-pound king Floyd "Money" Mayweather, Jr (40-0) and "Sugar" Shane Mosley (46-5) for the latter's WBA welterweight title.

PHOTOS:  Final Press Conference

Biggest Fight of 2010  >

   Mayweather reportedly stands to make a minimum of $22 million while Mosley stands to earn at least $7 million for the bout.  Golden Boy Promotions CEO Richard Schaefer predicted four million pay-per-view (PPV) buys, which is a wide stretch target, but which may double each fighter's earnings.

On Wednesday's final press conference, Schaefer attributed the potential record-breaking interest from internet statistics that shows "Who R U Picking?" as having logged over 100 million online impressions. 

   Mayweather vs Mosley has captured the imagination of the public.  Corporate sponsors, such as blue chip Fortune 100 company AT&T, have bought in.  The international audience is tuning in.  Two elite boxers.  Two African American fighters . . . evoking classic showdowns such as Sugar Ray Leonard vs Marvin Hagler, Thomas Hearns vs Sugar Ray Leonard.  The large, always looming figure of all-time great Manny Pacquiao casts an overwhelming shadow on this bout.  The stakes are immense, and are of historical proportions.  It is the stuff by which legends are made of.

   CLICK Images  'Who R U Picking?' Final Press Conference

               

          

"The Battle of Maldon" is an old English poem conveying one of history's greatest short excerpts into war.  The words depicted the skirmish between East Saxons and Viking raiders in 991 AD. It is incomplete account, its beginning and ending both lost, but the poem is remarkable for its vivid, dramatic combat scenes:

They stood fast,
warriors in conflict. Warriors fell,
weary with wounds. The slain fell on earth.
Oswold and Eadwold all the while,
both those brothers, strengthened the men,
with words bade their kin-friends
that they should endure at need,
unweakly use weapons.
Byrhtwold spoke, raised his shield--
he was an old retainer--shook his ash-spear;
full boldly he taught warriors:
"Thought must be the harder, heart be the keener,
mind must be the greater, while our strength lessens . . . .

. . . . So Aethelgar's son emboldened them all,
Godric to battle. Often he let spear,
slaughter-spear, speed into those Vikings;
so among folk he went first,
hewed and humbled, until he in fight fell.

Three Reasons Why Mayweather Wins

   During the final press conference, Mosley has staed that "he will lay it all on the line."  That he is excited to be in this most visible position. The marketplace has spoken its opinion:  Mayweather is a 4-1 favorite to defeat the Pomona, California native.

There are three primary reasons why Mayweather beats Mosley:


  David Haye's ringcard girl (DominicaWestling.com)

1.   The problem with Shane Mosley . . . is that he is Shane Mosley. 

"Sugar" Shane is the same, template fighter from the opening bell until the final bell, except you have a more tired fighter in the last rounds.  He is a pattern fighter.  Manny Pacquiao, Mike Tyson, Shane Mosley, Marvin Hagler are all pattern fighters.  Mosley has a distinct style carved out of habit, and inseam combat psychology.  It has worked for him.  Mosley will not change. 

Floyd Mayweather, in the classic 'art of war' sense, is an adaptive soldier.  He takes about three rounds in order to study and measure his enemy.  That is where he places space between himself and his opponent - i.e., he moves away - to give himself ample knowledge from which he can make his adjustments.

   Mayweather, like Muhammad Ali, is a master at improvising.  Improvisation - adaptation - is a top virtue for soldiers like the Marines.  Like a color chameleon lizard that blends colors within the forest - that flows like water, and strikes with lightning immediacy. 

Mosley has no choice but to pressure attack and brawl with the slightly smaller "Money."  The first three to four rounds will be competitive, maybe 50-50.  Do not be fooled by optical illusions. Something crucial is transpiring beneath the surface.  Mayweather is biding his time.  By the fourth and fifth rounds, he will begin to pull away from this fight.  The longer the fight goes on, the more dominant he becomes, the more excellent his prowess in skills.  He will have changed and adapted, while Mosley will have been the same - the entire time.

2.     Hype is garbage.  Evidence is what is submissible in court.

   The most critical tools in this battle are Shane Mosley's left hand and footwork.  Can his left jab land on Mayweather?

Can his footwork keep up with Mayweather's own elite footwork, in order to constantly effect pressure?

   It is virtually impossible to land a right blow to the head or to the body when facing Floyd Mayweather.  His defensive stance is designed to take away 50% of your arsenal - your right hand.  If Mosley is to win, he will need to land that left jab with amazing accuracy, and to land his left hooks if or when directly in front of Mayweather.  The problem is, Mayweather does not face his opponent with a perpendicular degree.  He stands to his side (exposing his left arm) which significantly reduces the surface area exposed for "artillery shelling."  It is a matter of geometry.  Mosley will be attacking Mayweather - and squaring his body - which leaves much more body surface area that Floyd can punch.  However, Mayweather stances to the side, left foot to the front, that hides his right side from Mosley.

Mayweather is boxing's most accurate puncher.  He may not be the sport's most powerful puncher, but his deadly accuracy will eventually slow down Shane Mosley.

Food for thought:

(Video)  Shane Mosley was outjabbed by Vernon Forrest

(Video)  Floyd Mayweather was successfully pressured by Jose Luis Castillo

(Video)  Shane Mosley lost twice to the defensive Winky Wright

3.     The final reason Mayweather defeats Mosley on May 1st?  Shane Mosley does not have a backup plan.  His only option is to keep attacking, especially in the early rounds, in order to force some sort of dramatic turn of events.  Floyd Mayweather will be unwilling to get caught in the ropes, and can simply make that big stride to his right with his right foot.  Mayweather will be unwilling to fight inside, and will prevent any sort of prolonged hold and grapple with Mosley.

   Because Mosley has no alternative but to pressure, and hopefully armed with speed, he will eventually get picked apart in the middle and late rounds.  Mosley will also need to throw much more punches in order to impress ringside judges.  Mayweather throws about 40 punches per round, typically landing at least 20 punches.  But "Money's" footwork will prevent large volumes of punches from landing.

Speed kills.  But accuracy and anticipation are the antidotes to speed.  If a light tank charges the front at full speed, rocket launchers and artillery are designed to unload with pinpoint accuracy.  The principles and strategem on the battlefield translate inside the ring this Saturday evening.

Floyd Mayweather wins by UNANIMOUS DECISION

PHOTOS:  Final Press Conference

Undercards  >

Prior to the main event, Mexican Saul Alvarez (31-0) takes on Jose Miguel Cotto (31-1-1) of Caguas, Puerto Rico in a welterweight bout.  In a featherweight match, Daniel Ponce De Leon (38-2) of Mexico takes on Cornelius Lock (19-4) of Detroit, Michigan.

Copyright © 2010, Marv Dumon

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, International Sports Examiner

Marv Dumon writes daily columns on a range of subjects including national policy, business, literature, sports, and gaming. He is the author of Enter The Real World: What School Never Taught You About Life. Marv's professional background conveys experience with two Fortune 500 companies, mergers ...

Comments

  • Buyers Beware... 2 years ago

    "Courage is what separates Mayweather and Pacquiao in many people's perceptions -- with Pacquiao being a gutty fighter while Mayweather hits and runs".FOX NEWS

    And The Biggest Loser is......"The FANS"

    They'll be watching a game of tag in the boxing ring.....I'll save my $60 and watch NBA playoffs...Go Spurs!!!

  • nap d great 2 years ago

    Maybe I saw it the other way how Mayweather having trouble with Hatton and De La Hoya, and Mosley is far better than the two., and Manny is not a pattern fightern, the right hand that knock down Hatton and Cotto are not there when He fought De La Hoya, and Mosley had been a better fighter, my brother Richadson enhanced the skills that had never been use by Mosley over years. Manny vs Mosley the biggest fight of 2010 and May 1 the biggest upset of the decade. Mosley by KO in late rounds. Yeah, I will be watching the Mosley vs Money but on replay, I just spare my money for few bottles of beer viewing the replays.

  • kENkOY 2 years ago

    Hey daydreamer writer! Wake up! Maybe you have not taken your lunch yesterday and you are hallucinating with your opinion. Let us see on May 1st if your story will match with what gonna happened in the squared ring.. He he he.. Anyway, I will give you a rate of 50cents for your story.

  • myk dumon 2 years ago

    ohhh wait..there's still 4rth reason.

    4.) Fourth, the true and authentic reason why mosley will lose on may 1? Because, he sold the fight for mayweather in the conditons that he could still keeping the belt after (he losses)the fight and gets the $2M in advance as downpayment w/c was a part of the $Ms sign in bonus on top of whatever amount he could get from the fight for allowing to follow the script made by GBP and mayweathers.

    Mosley used the ($2M) downpayment for his nose job and divorce settlement.

    And the LOSSERS are the 12,000 BOXING FANS who foolishly bought the ticket. But anyway they are free to stroll inside the not so fully occupied 17,000 capacity venue so they'll not get bored to sleep during fight night.

  • PEKPEKMO 2 years ago

    WHO WINS,FLOYD MAYWEATHER OR SHANE MOSLEY? THE WINNER AND STILL POUND FOR POUND FIGHTER IN THE WORLDDDDDD! MANNY,PACMAN PACQUIAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

  • larry villacorte 2 years ago

    I'd like to speculate that Mosley will do more than putting pressure on Floyd. My gut tell me that Shane will outsmart Floyd by employing the "100-punch per round combo" of the Pacman. Add to that would be some 30 power punches to the shoulders and abdomen of Floyd which literally would make Floyd quit after the fifth round. The fight will be boring, but this would be good enough to pass the weekend away... in front of the TV with a bottle of red wine.

  • Richard Chupman 2 years ago

    Floyd 'Money' Mayweather new name after this fight would be...Floyd 'All Time Great' Mayweather Jr.

    Just to give you all a heads up, the new Ring magazine, Yahoo Sports, and ESPN p4p ranking will be posted on Monday.

    (Top 10) Official 4p4 rankings as of May 03 2010.

    1. Floyd 'All Time Great' Mayweather
    2. Manny Pacquiao
    3. Shane Mosley
    4. Bernard Hopkins
    5. Paul Williams
    6. Miguel Cotto
    7. Pauli Malignaggi
    8. Juan Manuel Marquez
    9. Chad Dawson
    10. Ricky Hatton

  • coolwaterjinx 2 years ago

    once sugar shane penetrates chickenmayweathers defense, IT WILL BE A KNOCKOUT! the next battle would be PACMAN VS. SUGAR SHANE!!! cant wait!

  • tursiops 2 years ago

    Once again they underestimate sugar shane mosley, they will be in for a big surprise come may 1st....mays 1st loss. Ill be watching this on replay.

  • boxing fan 2 years ago

    i hope this is not a scripted fight.

  • by ken: 2 years ago

    how about money vs pacman?/

  • josemoroco 2 years ago

    only fools watch this fight... There is no excitement in a scripted fight..LOL.. by,, josemoroco the baby face assassin..

  • Gino 2 years ago

    I'll go with Shane Mosley.. UD

  • Gino 2 years ago

    Shane Mosley by split decision.

  • josemoroco 2 years ago

    NBA lebron james and Kobe Bryant.. are worthy to spend money...than a scripted fight///go go lakers and cavs...

  • RumirNero 2 years ago

    while i do agree with you Marv but ill still go with Mosley in this fight... my reasons are: (1.)you cannot underestimate the punches of a power puncher like Mosley; and (2.) the obvious reasons is that i am clannish... support your pride and wear your pride. of course, who will not get angry with the baseless insinuations done by Floyd?

  • Ka Dencio 2 years ago

    I agree with Schaefer that there are more than 100million impressions on the internet, but should not be the basis that PPVs will hit 4million. If Schaefer would only verify the impressions he would be surprised that almost 100million impressions come from dissapointed fans who witnessed Mayweather's last 5 games how he monkeyed around by jabbing and backpedaling the whole game.

    But that is how Schaefer would hype the game. I hope there will be idiots who have stomach to part ways with their hard-earned money just to see a boring game. How many idiots will there be...let's wait the result of PPV hits.

  • josemoroco 2 years ago

    it is true that black african are really coward... i think americans are brave..specifically white.. i dont considered black.. pls let me know whats the truth.. josemoroco the baby face assassin...

  • josemoroco 2 years ago

    ONLY FOOLS WATCH THIS BORING SCRIPTED FIGHT....LOL.... PLEASE DONATE TO CHARITY YOUR CHEATED MONEY GOLDEN BOY PROMOTION...LOL.... by josemoroco the baby face assassin..

  • josemoroco 2 years ago

    IT IS MORE EXCITED TO SEE WHO ARE THOSE FOOLS WATCH THIS BORING FIGHT THAN THE EVENT ITSELF...LOL.... by josemoroco the baby face assassin.

  • Adam Carolla says 2 years ago

    The biggest fight of 2010 is between Manny Pacquiao vs the winner of Who R U Picking. Mosley-Mayweather bout is a fight for a chance to face the King of Boxing, The Pacman

  • BONGOTON 2 years ago

    whose the winner in this fight ,let see if someone will have a guts to say and challenged manny to fight the winner in may 1!!!!much interesting.....

  • edfel 2 years ago

    Richard Chupman kee on dreaming there is no law that prohibits you to dream, at least in your dream Floyd is no. 1 P4P, go on keep on dreaming even in day time

  • compadre 2 years ago

    mayweather will lose to shane and will retire for good.PAQUIAO the GREATEST FIGHTER THAT EVER LIVED!!!

  • NIKITA 2 years ago

    floyd is the most boring fighter in the world.

  • lefty 2 years ago

    Why do you say 'co p4p king?You can't be the man until you beat the man, and mayweather won't fight Pac.All this drug testing rubbish is just an excuse to duck AGAIN!!! Mayweather is a deluded,self-centered liar.All the running his mouth against Manny is all just him getting his reasons in for not fighting him.How can you compare yourself to Robinson or ali yet duck every real challenge since 2004.He complains about Manny getting fighter of the decade yet he only had 2 real challenges since 2000. Corrales and Juda don't make a fighter the decades best.Grow a pair of nuts and fight,don't run!He keeps telling people that he is an entertainer,yet most boxing fans i know think he is the most boring fighter to watch.He won't fight anyone who is a real threat until they are either too old or coming up 2 or 3 weight classes.He will be remembered as the most talented coward boxing has ever produced.History is about FACTS! And the fact is he ducked every real threat since moving to welter

  • Adam Carolla says 2 years ago

    The biggest fight of 2010 is between Manny Pacquiao vs the winner of Who R U Picking. Mosley-Mayweather bout is a fight for a chance to face the King of Boxing, The Pacman

  • patgaer 2 years ago

    no matter what, floyduck wins, floyduck #1 P4P, the fact still remains, the duck is scared to go and taste the power of smaller man pacman..

  • isidro 2 years ago

    Watch again the following fights of Floyd against these fighters(Oscar,Zab and Ricky)and one thing in common about those fights for the losers,all gave up easily in the latter rounds as a thinking fighter and succumbed in eagerness to finish the fight.Shane is good in a waiting game, and that will spell doom for Mayweather Jr. because he can't look good and psychologize an opponent into a counter punching melee.If no offense to counter and points are not connected then Floyd must become the aggressor at a round.Just a round will define the outcome of the whole fight.Shane will win via KO.

  • tae 2 years ago

    floyd'pe, gwaaarrrkkk!!!

  • vorapin 2 years ago

    You should taste 1st great fighters of thailand, floyd mayweather

  • REALINO 2 years ago

    I'm also picking Floyd to win, because objectively speaking he is the better boxer between the two. Floyd will win with points, he won't fight, but he will surely box.

    The only guy I could see beating floyd, literally beating him up is, Manny Pacquiao. Most PBF opponent cannot sustain an aggressive attack to really bother him. Pacman can do that. If PBF does beat Mosley, and PBF face Pacman, Pacman will kill him.

  • Jab 2 years ago

    Mosley will strike Gayweather so hard that he cannot use his bigmouth again.

  • Richard Chupman 2 years ago

    Floyd Jr is the Michael Jordan of boxing. Manny Pacquiao is the Michael Jordan wanna be of boxing. Pacquiao must bend his knees before Floyd and ask for forgiveness of his sin. Pacquiao has committed a serious sin to Mayweather. Stealing Mayweather's p4p throne is a serious crime in the eyes of the King Floyd. Pacroid is a disgrace in boxing. Pacquiao is a fake p4p king! Floyd is the greatest ever!

  • buga-buga 2 years ago

    This fight is going to be a DRAW!

  • Richard Chupman 2 years ago

    Pacroid is a joke!

  • #1floydfan 2 years ago

    Yeah thats right CO-pound-for-pound-king you can't be the man until you beat the man and that man is Floyd 'money' Mayweather....That Mayweather 1% KO thats me,,,,remember that when it happens!!!58% says Mosley? My are we going to have a whole lot of losers here May 1st

  • #1floydfan fiance' 2 years ago

    Yes, Floyd is great because he never failed in 40 professional fights (never mind the amateurs) but he never faced a fighter like Mosley too. In fact, except Dela Hoya who was in the losing end of his career, he never fought an elite fighter who came from a big victory from the man he never dared to challenge.
    Yes, Floyd is very slick fighter but no fighter can escape all the power punches from his opponent during the whole 36 minutes time. Floyd must eat some power punches and that the scary thing there because Mosley still has a lot of power.
    Yes, Floyd is a chess match master but everyone knew that already. Richardson is not a bum trainer, he's a Trainer of the year qualifier if not a runner up with Master Coach Freddie Roach. He knew exactly what he's doing. He knew what the advantage of his man. He will never advise Shane to fight Floyd's fight. Shane Mosley himself said early that Floyd will know who's the real chess player is. That speaks something about the plan.

  • #1floydfan 2 years ago

    fiance floyd is going to beat shane.

  • ponso 2 years ago

    If Mayweather will fight the way Mosley want, Mayweather will be down on deck, but I am sure Mayweather will fight like a bird ROAD RUNNER AND DANCE like John Travolta then he will reach 12 round. After all Mayweather will be awarded the GREATEST DANCER ever.

  • #1floydfan 2 years ago

    and fiance the mayweathers have been around the sport alot longer than brother naazim....They are streetwise...Mosley is going to be eating alot of jabs because of those wide shots he trows...He launches his attack too...If he doesn't watchout he might end up like Ricky Hatton! But most likely TKOd!

  • #1floydfan 2 years ago

    fiance? anybody? hellooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.......Marv it looks like you put alot of effort into writing this article...I bet you'd be more embarrsed than me if Mosley beats Floyd...I can't wait untill May 1st so I can chillout from all this for awhile...I just hope that if Floyd wins Pacquiao vs Mayweather finaly gets made....Pacquiao vs Foreman or Cotto @ 154bls and Mayweather vs Williams would be the next best thing! Bradley/Berto if he beats Maidana!

  • Mayon Volcano 2 years ago

    Floyd is getting nervous as the fight nears.

  • Southpaw 2 years ago

    Poor Mosley makes a measly 7 million while the bankrobber makes 22...Lets all hope Mayweather/Mosley doesn't do too well because I know stubbin Pacquiao wont accept a 40% split...People like to claim that he doesn't fight for money but they have no idea that he turned down Ricky Hatton the first time because he felt he wasn't getting enough ha! People are so stupid! I'll trade that $5 belt for the check any day of the week!

  • realism 2 years ago

    this fight is a the same replica of mayweather vs dela Hoya.. a complete boring fight from the start to finish.

    mayweather is going to jab.. jab.. jab.. run.. run.. run around.. the whole 12 rounds. if you are going to measure all the running that mayweather made in 12 rounds, its almost close to a complete revolution of the earth around the sun..

    the fight is only worth watching in replay.

  • barok obama 2 years ago

    brittle fisted and overrated floyd can't ko an old lightweight fighter marquez, i beleive he can't ko a real welterweight in mosley. what he will do is ran around the ring until all the audience fall asleep!lol

  • Southpaw 2 years ago

    Funny comment! I'd watch the replay too except that I couldnt even find the replay for Andre Bertos last fight anywhere in the WEB and while I was trying to watch it live streaming it cut out 1 minute into the first round...I don't ever want that to happen again...Any sugestions as to where I could watch it free of charge and get an early replay? Im sure there are other readers that would also like to know!

  • Southpaw 2 years ago

    barak osama hard hitting Manny Pacquiao couldn't even KO Marquez yet he kod Hatton and TKod Cotto so dont be surprised when brittle fisted Mayweather TKos Mosley...Mosley and Marquez have two totaly diferent styles...Mosley is going to be the agressor and force Mayweather to fight so expect that average 40 punches around to almost double!

  • kim 2 years ago

    floydicaine fans are all nervous now coz the end is near for their idol. watch him run all night long!

  • #1floydfan 2 years ago

    Im not nervous at all....Infact im feeling quite confident....Sooo confident im thinking about who he should fight next....Of course I wish it were Pacquiao but I know it's going to be difficult to get him to take the test bring it to Vegas and take a percentage deduction!!!!

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