Hundreds of millions of Americans will cast their ballots this November, but the votes that matter the most are cast by members of the Electoral College months later. President Obama has made gains in the national polls after the Democratic National Convention, and as seen below that has also helped him in the Electoral College vote projection.. The projection has changed little over the last three weeks, but Obama's lead in a number of key states like Ohio and Florida has increased. The last update also gave Obama 332 votes, compared to 204 votes for Mitt Romney.
Romney's biggest problem is that he currently starts with a much smaller base of "safe states" than Obama. At this point, Romney can safely on 181 electoral votes from his red states, whereas Obama can safely rely on 227 electoral votes from his blue states. Obama's base goes up to 247 if one includes Pennsylvania as one of his safe states, which would not be an unreasonable conclusion based on the recent polls. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, so that means Romeny needs to win almost all of the swing states to get to 270, but Obama only needs to win one or two big swing states to get to 270. As the polls below show, Romney is currently losing most of the swing states, an opposite result of what he needs.
It should be noted that a large number of the votes currently counted for Obama come from states which are very closely contested. The President's lead in many states is well within the margin-of-error for the given polls, and a change in just a few percentage points could make the race competitive again.
The projection above is made using the most recent polls linked below, while also giving consideration to the historical trends of each state and other polls released over the last two weeks. Special emphasis is given to how the state voted in 2008. In analyzing Michigan, for example, President Obama won the state by 16 points in 2008, and an average of polls has Obama ahead by 2 points. Considering all these factors, the state is still projected for Obama even though one recent poll has the race tied.. It is also worth noting that many of the most recent polls come from Rasmussen Reports, an organization that has given Republican candidates a misleading three-to-five point edge in their polls as recently as 2010.
Since the last update, new polls have been released in the states of Michigan, Missouri, California, New York, New Mexico, Montana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Arizona, Washington, New Jersey, Texas, Minnesota, Illinois, and North Carolina.
A prediction of the 2012 map based on the new polls can be seen above. Follow me on Twitter or Facebook to receive continual updates up through Election Day.
Safe Obama States
State, Electoral Votes, Result in 2008, Latest Polling
California 55, 61%-37%, 57%-35% (Romney) (Survey USA 9/13)
Connecticut 7, 61%-38%, 53%-40% (Romney) (PPP 8/29)
Delaware 3, 62%-37%
Hawaii 4, 72%-27%
Illinois 20, 62%-37%, 54%-37% (We Ask America 9/11)
Maine 4, 58%-40%, 49%-35% (Romney) (Critical Insights 7/11)
Maryland 10, 62%-37%
Massachusetts 11, 62%-36%, 55%-39% (Romney) (PPP 8/22)
Michigan 16, 57%-41%, 47%-37% (Romney) (EPIC-MRA 9/13)
Minnesota 10, 54%-45%, 50%-40% (Romney) (KSTP/Survey USA 9/11)
New Hampshire 4, 54%-45%, 51%-45% (Romney) (PPP 8/14)
New Jersey 14, 57%-42%, 51%-44% (Romney) (Quinnipiac 9/7)
New Mexico 5, 57%-42%, 53%-42% (Romney) (PPP 9/12)
New York 29, 63%-36%, 62%-34% (Romney) (Quinnipiac 9/13)
Oregon 7, 57%-41%, 50%-42% (Romney) (PPP 6/26)
Pennsylvania 20, 55%-44%, 51%-42% (Romney) (Philadelphia Inquirer 8/25)
Rhode Island 4, 63%-35%
Vermont 3, 68%-31%, 62%-35% (Castelton College 8/22)
Washington 12, 58%-41%, 54%-38% (Romney) (Survey USA 9/10)
Washington D.C. 3, 93%-7%
Wisconsin 10, 51%-38%, 49%-47% (Romney) (CBS News/NY Times 8/23)
*Nebraska's 2nd Dist. 1, 50%-49% 49-37% (Romney) (PPP)
Total 247
Safe Romney States
Alabama 9, 39%-61%
Alaska 3, 38%-60%
Arizona 11, 45%-54% 44%-53% (Romney) (PPP 9/10)
Arkansas 6, 39%-59%
Georgia 16, 47%-52%, 42%-50% (Romney) (Survey USA 7/30)
Idaho 4, 36%-61%
Indiana 11, 50%-49%, 35-51% (Rasmussen 7/5)
Kansas 6, 42%-57%
Kentucky 8, 41%-58%
Louisiana 8, 39%-59%
Mississippi 6, 43%-56%, 40%-46% (Romney) (PPP)
Nebraska 4, 42%-57%, 39%-53% (Romney) (Rasmussen 5/18)
North Dakota 3, 45%-53%, 36%-51% (Rasmussen Reports 7/13)
Oklahoma 7, 34%-66%, 29%-58% (Romney) (Sooner Poll 8/20)
South Carolina 9, 45%-54%, 45%-42% (Romney) (NBC News/Marist 12/11)
South Dakota 3, 45%-53%
Tennessee 11, 42%-57%, 41%-48% (Romney) (PPP)
Texas 38, 44%-55%, 40%-55% (Romney) (WPA 9/12)
Utah 6, 34%-63%, 26%-68% (Huntsman) (Deseret News 6/25)
West Virginia 5, 43%-56%, 37%-50% (Romney) (PPP)
Wyoming 3, 33%-65%
Total 181
Swing States
Colorado 9, 54%-45%, 49%-46% (Romney) (PPP 9/3)
Florida 29, 51%-48%, 48%-45% (Romney) (Survey USA 9/11)
Iowa 6, 54%-45%, 47%-45% (Romney) (PPP 8/28)
Minnesota 10, 54%-45%, 50%-40% (Romney) (KSTP/Survey USA 9/11)
Missouri 10, 49%-50%, 45%-48% (Romney) (Rasmussen Reports 9/13)
Montana 3, 47%-50%, 45-50% (Romney) (PPP 9/12)
Nevada 6, 55%-43%, 50%-47% (Romney) (PPP 8/29)
North Carolina 15, 50%-49%, 43%-53% (Romney) (Survey USA/Civitas 9/10)
Ohio 18, 46%-42%, 47%-43% (Romney) (Gravis Marketing 9/11)
Virginia 13, 53%-47%, 49%-44% (Romney) (Gravis Marketing 9/11)
Total 119
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