With less than 100 hours left until the presidential election President Obama continues to hold on to his leads in enough states to garner the 270 electoral votes he needs for a majority. The last Electoral College projection gave Obama 303 votes, compared to 235 votes for Mitt Romney. Today's update includes 27 new state polls released over the last over the last 72 hours, but the overall projection has not changed. President Obama is still projected to win re-election with a 303-235 Electoral College vote majority.
Since the last update new polls have been released in the states of Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, North Carolina, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Tennessee, Nebraska, Maryland, New Mexico, North Dakota, Hawaii, Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Massachusetts, Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Washington.
The projection above is made using the most recent polls linked below, while also giving consideration to the historical trends of each state, other polls released over the last two weeks, and any historical bias of any pollster. Special emphasis is given to how the state voted in 2008. In analyzing Arizona, for example, President Obama is leading in the most recent poll, but Obama lost the state in 2008 and is generally preforming worse in 2012 than 2008. Finally, almost every other poll has Romney ahead in Arizona. Given all these factors, Arizona is still given to Romney despite the most recent poll. It is also worth noting that many of the most recent polls come from Rasmussen Reports, an organization that has given Republican candidates a misleading three-to-five point edge in their polls as recently as 2010.
A prediction of the 2012 map based on the new polls can be seen above. Follow me on Twitter or Facebook to receive continual updates up through Election Day.
Safe Obama States
State, Electoral Votes, Result in 2008, Latest Polling
California 55, 61%-37%, 54%-40% (LA Times/USC 10/21)
Connecticut 7, 61%-38%, 55%-41% (Quinnipiac 10/24)
Delaware 3, 62%-37%
Hawaii 4, 72%-27%, 61%-34% (Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG 10/26)
Illinois 20, 62%-37%, 57%-41% (We Ask America 10/30)
Maine 4, 58%-40%, 51%-37% (Pan Atlantic SMS 10/10)
Maryland 10, 62%-37%, 55%-36% (Baltimore Sun 10/23)
Massachusetts 11, 62%-36%, 63%-31% (Suffolk/7News 10/28)
Michigan 16, 57%-41%, 48%-45% (Detroit News 10/29)
Minnesota 10, 54%-45%, 50%-43% (KSTP/Survey USA 10/28)
New Jersey 14, 57%-42%, 51%-41% (Philadelphia Inquirer 10/25)
New Mexico 5, 57%-42%, 50%-41% (Albuquerque Journal 10/25)
New York 29, 63%-36%, 62%-33% (Survey USA 10/25)
Oregon 7, 57%-41%, 47%-41% (The Oregonian 10/28)
Pennsylvania 20, 55%-44%, 49%-45% (Franklin and Marshall 10/28)
Rhode Island 4, 63%-35%, 54%-33% (WPRI/Fleming 10/27)
Vermont 3, 68%-31%, 62%-35% (Castelton College 8/22)
Washington 12, 58%-41%, 54%-40% (Survey USA 10/31)
Washington D.C. 3, 93%-7%
Wisconsin 10, 51%-38%, 49%-49% (Rasmussen 10/29)
Total 247
Safe Romney States
Alabama 9, 39%-61%
Alaska 3, 38%-60%
Arizona 11, 45%-54% 44%-52% (Behavior Research Center 10/13)
Arkansas 6, 39%-59%, 35%-56% (Talk Business Poll 9/25)
Georgia 16, 47%-52%, 44%-52% (Survey USA 10/28)
Idaho 4, 36%-61%
Indiana 11, 50%-49%, 41%-51% (Howey/Depauw 10/30)
Kansas 6, 42%-57%
Kentucky 8, 41%-58%, 39%-53% (Courier Journal/Survey USA 9/15)
Louisiana 8, 39%-59%
Mississippi 6, 43%-56%, 40%-46% (PPP)
Missouri 10, 49%-50%, 42%-54% (We Ask America 10/30)
Montana 3, 47%-50%, 45%-53% (Rasmussen 10/17)
Nebraska 4, 42%-57%, 40%-54% (Omaha World-Heread 10/23)
North Dakota 3, 45%-53%, 40%-54% (Mason Dixon 10/28)
Oklahoma 7, 34%-66%, 33%-59% (Sooner Poll 10/24)
South Carolina 9, 45%-54%, 45%-42% (NBC News/Marist 12/11)
South Dakota 3, 45%-53%
Tennessee 11, 42%-57%, 34%-59% (Middle Tennessee State Univ 10/21)
Texas 38, 44%-55%, 39%-58% (Texas Lyceum 10/3)
Utah 6, 34%-63%, 26%-68% (Huntsman) (Deseret News 6/25)
West Virginia 5, 43%-56%, 37%-50% (PPP)
Wyoming 3, 33%-65%
Total 191
Swing States
Colorado 9, 54%-45%, 50%-47% (We Ask America 10/30)
Florida 29, 51%-48%, 49%-50% (We Ask America 10/30)
Iowa 6, 54%-45%, 49%-48% (Rasmussen 10/30)
New Hampshire 4, 54%-45%, 50%-44% (New England College 10/31)
Nevada 6, 55%-43%, 49%-45% (LVRJ/Survey USA 10/28)
North Carolina 15, 50%-49%, 49%-49% (PPP 10/31)
Ohio 18, 46%-42%, 48%-46% (Ohio Poll/Univ of Cincinnatti 10/30)
Virginia 13, 53%-47%, 49%-47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/28)
Total 100
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