It was one thing to put a bunch of the girls in the Top 5 among the "American Idol" Top 20 finalists, but a week later and a Top 10 naming later and, there seems to be little change in how the oddsmakers are calling Season 12. Why? Because the Top 10 finalists are nearly the same as those called by the oddsmakers as having the best chances of winning the competition.
In fact, according to professional oddsmaker site Bovada.com, three of the four girls in the top five (with the best odds to win) were also given the best odds to win when there were 20 finalists left. One big miscalculation seemed to with Aubrey Cleland (who had been given third-best odds to win), one of the five girls not making the five-girl cut. Another was underestimating Candice Glover, who took her place in the top five (with fourth-best odds: 12/1). As part of the Top 20, she was just outside the ten with the best chances of winning.
Amber Holcomb slipped a bit in total placement, even though her odds to win (14/1) didn't change at all. Because of Lazaro Arbos, the only guy in the top five projections, being tied with Candice Glover, Holcomb slipped from being tied in the fifth spot to the sixth slot. Arbos increased his odds from 15/1 to 12/1, but Glover's movement was most impressive: She doubled her odds of winning, from 25/1 to 12/1.
Only two of the finalists remained static: Amber and Paul Jolley. Paul remained stuck at 15/1 odds, tying with Devin Velez.
In fact, of all the "American Idol" contestants that made the Top 10, only Burnell Taylor slipped odds-wise, falling from 14/1 to 16/1.
Even so, Burnell doesn't look like he'll be the first to go home, at least if you take into consideration the odds ratios. That unfortunate distinction goes to Curtis Finch Jr., who slides in at 20/1 odds of winning it all. Apparently Curtis not being able to disguise his arrogance or stop with those scrunched faces has placed him at a disadvantage.
With Aubrey Cleland removed from the equation, the top three girls moving up from the Top 20 -- Angela (Angie) Miller, Kree Harrison, and Janelle Arthur -- all increased their odds of winning as well.
Miller looks good for the win, but only if you consider that she's currently the judges' favorite among the girls. She also seems to have some backing among the viewers (she did make the Top 10, after all) and her talent is obvious, even if it is in a Taylor Swift off-key kind of way. But she cannot let down her guard because all the other girls in the competition have stronger voices, with Kree Harrison and Candice Glover vying for best female vocalist of Season 12. And Amber has some power in her chords as well. Janelle... well, Janelle sings well but she doesn't have the presence of Kree, Candice, Amber, and Angela.
The guys just don't have a chance. Curtis has the voice but lacks in personality. Burnell has the humble personality but lacks passion in his singing. Lazaro has a great voice and backstory but sometimes slips in elocution. Paul simply doesn't impress at all. And Devin has a great voice as well but is entirely too forgettable.
Yes, it certainly looks like a year for the girls. And if one of the five still in it get the win, it will be the first win for a female on "Idol" since Jordin Sparks in 2007.
American Idol Odds To Win Season 12
Angela Miller - 2/1
Kree Harrison - 5/2
Janelle Arthur - 9/2
Candice Glover - 12/1
Lazaro Arbos - 12/1
Amber Holcomb - 14/1
Devin Velez - 1
Paul Jolley - 15/1
Burnell Taylor - 16/1
Curtis Finch Jr - 20/1
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