Computational physicists in Switzerland and Brazil have reported the development of a voting analysis algorithm that explains past voting and can be used to predict voting in a head to head match or on a multicandidate ballot.
The work was reported on September 15, 2010, at the Public Library of Science site PLoSOne.
While we all know that money is most often the factor that wins elections this analysis identifies
tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.
The predictive results are compared with the Obama vs. McCain election with an extremely high correlation.
Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections
Nuno A. M. Araújo 1, José S. Andrade, Jr 2, Hans J. Herrmann 1,2
1 Computational Physics for Engineering Materials, Institute for Building Materials, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
2 Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil
Citation: Araújo NAM, Andrade JS Jr, Herrmann HJ (2010) Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections. PLoS ONE 5(9): e12446. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012446
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