Based on global empirical patterns over the period 1965-99.” Over this period, “the risk of civil war” became “systematically related to a few economic conditions, such as dependence on primary commodity exports and low national income . Objective measures of social grievance, such as inequality, a lack of democracy, and ethnic and religious divisions, have had little systematic effect on risk.” in short, if rebellion presents itself as the ultimate protest movement, it will attract as noncombatant supporters those who normally support protest movements.”
Three factors that he views as key to predatory rebellion. The first is the presence of primary commodity exports in an economy that is dependent on them.
The ability to create a stable economy and maintain the social contract is the very foundation of a nation state maintain the will of the people to allow its government to rule. With a the ability to maintain the social contract a government fore fits its authority..
The second is the presence of a rebel organization plunges the society from peace
into civil war, and the costs of war are likely to outweigh the costs of government predation. “The presence of military dictators within its officer ranks or extremist groups both left and right present the internal and existential threat to the nation state.
The third is that under developed countries tend to create ideal conditions due to the high poverty levels low literacy rates as opposed to stable developed countries. Coller is quoted as saying that “inequality does not seem to affect the risk of conflict. Rebellion
seems not to be the rage of the poor.”
To understand this concept one only has to look to Nigeria the Northwestern African nations of 168 Million according to the CIA and literacy rate of 61% over the age of 15 with the ability to read and write
“The economic theory of conflict argues that these people have been taken in by accepting the discourse at face value.” “History matters because if a country has recently had a civil war, its risk of further war is much higher. Immediately after the end of hostilities there is a 40 percent chance of further conflict.” Other important factors that matter in attempting to discern whether it is greed or grievance that foments civil conflict are the political activism of and financial support from diaspora. According to many experts, “diasporas appear to make life for those left behind much more dangerous in post conflict situations.” “to predict a civil war, it is surely more useful to focus on near-term indicators such as political incidents and rising violence.” At the same time, the model is useful in pointing to the typical structural risks and so provides some guidance on longer-term policies for prevention.”