The ADP National Employment Report released this morning shows that the private sector added 201,000 jobs in March, while February was revised from an increase of 217,000 to 208,000.
"The average monthly increase in employment over the last four months – December through March – has been 211,000, consistent with a gradual if uneven decline in the unemployment rate. This is almost three times the average monthly gain of 74,000 over the preceding four months of August through November," ADP said.
Employment in the service sector, which accounts for most of the economy, rose 164,000 in March, and goods-producers added 37,000.
The improvement in private-sector employment is consistent with much of the data showing that the economic recovery has been gaining steam in recent months, including the downward trend in weekly jobless claims, which appears to be settling south of 400,000.
Rising oil prices and uncertainty in the Middle East did take a toll on consumer confidence in March, but investors have plowed back into stocks over the past couple of weeks, suggesting that the drop in consumer sentiment is probably temporary and employment and economic gains are likely to continue.
On Friday, we will get the government's take on the labor market when nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March are released.
A survey of economists by Briefing.com suggests a 185,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls is on tap, including a gain of 203,000 from the private sector. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up from 8.9% to 9.0%, as discouraged workers gradually come back into the labor force amid improving conditions.
However, prior forecasts of a jump in job seekers have failed to materialize, which has played a role in the recent decline in the unemployment rate.
For more information about current issues impacting the economy, including a look at surging commodity prices, please see Tomorrow's Economy Today.
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